Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22481955913372f68ca48f8909393813abafac2fb2a2739c0908b1d71cd47382
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,772 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 4c | 2,881$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.63 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb868…72abbacked Yes | 3c | 2,515$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.87 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 5c | 1,689$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.59 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 3c | 1,274$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,042$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 4c | 977.89$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 3c | 870$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 5c | 792.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 5c | 726.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 11c | 698.1$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.52 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 4c | 647.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef4…9729backed No | 79c | 543.57$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.51 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa06e…eba4backed Yes | 18c | 499.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.57 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d0…794bbacked Yes | 5c | 498.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 480.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.56 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 14c | 472.35$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2be…4a4cbacked Yes | 5c | 376.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 3c | 316.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…bc90backed Yes | 7c | 304.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 4c | 289.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes | 5c | 287.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 10c | 279.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2c…7810backed Yes | 5c | 277.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 41 | 7.3%3 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 213.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 204.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 9c | 203.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 10c | 200.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 8c | 179$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 8c | 177.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a2…4965backed Yes | 15c | 166.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 12c | 141.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…9b20backed Yes | 9c | 120.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 10c | 117.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac3…bafbbacked Yes | 12c | 94.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…1b47backed Yes | 13c | 87.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe13e…935bbacked Yes | 17c | 65.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2d…1ad8backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 77c | 28.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or higher on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.