Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4a455aa91c4d12c960110e524d3898737caf9545caff2105201ddf741c04bf2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,894 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 4c | 3,160$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.7 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 939.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e20…0815backed No | 80c | 760.93$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.31 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…0918backed Yes | 25c | 699.87$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.97 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa06e…eba4backed Yes | 18c | 502.09$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.13 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8394…8d66backed Yes | 25c | 431.58$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 400.69$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.46 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 3c | 374.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 75c | 331.98$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.76 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 9c | 325.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 27c | 311.06$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.84 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 15c | 302.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 33c | 299.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 72c | 277.73$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.76 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 5c | 270$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 23c | 258.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.44 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 258.1$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.56 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 29c | 252.6$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.85 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Yes | 4c | 252.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 10c | 248.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 218.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 20c | 204.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 72c | 172.31$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.77 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 169.3$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.03 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 30c | 167.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 32c | 155.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 143.45$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 72c | 138.39$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63e3…27ffbacked Yes | 32c | 135$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb705…2c6ebacked Yes | 29c | 134$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…1274backed Yes | 32c | 123.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 29c | 119.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37a2…4965backed Yes | 21c | 118.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65b1…9b3ebacked No | 70c | 114.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 68c | 106.52$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b47…c0dabacked Yes | 31c | 105.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 75c | 100.63$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 71c | 95.35$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 24c | 91.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 26c | 89.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…fc88backed Yes | 33c | 89.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 17c | 87.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfda7…cf3bbacked Yes | 35c | 86.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x628a…464abacked No | 73c | 81.72$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 75c | 80.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 74c | 77.44$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 27c | 77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 32c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 28c | 69.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cc…102abacked Yes | 27c | 69.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 70c | 67.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 15c | 67.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…255dbacked Yes | 30c | 67.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 62.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d7…1635backed No | 67c | 62.1$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 52.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf9…ae91backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7202backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf785…2e62backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 26c | 49.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 49.11$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd3…433fbacked No | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 28c | 42.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe273…e74bbacked Yes | 29c | 41.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 27c | 40.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 73c | 40.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 30c | 39.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 73c | 36.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x653f…4eccbacked No | 72c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1869…9449backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1345…e4debacked No | 72c | 34.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 76 | 76.3%58 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3557…ae87backed No | 74c | 33.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No | 74c | 33.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e77…f4d7backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1be9…c899backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…bf5cbacked No | 70c | 28.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 73c | 27.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de1…5301backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 69 | 85.5%59 W · 10 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…291bbacked No | 68c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 80c | 25.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc52…6ea2backed No | 68c | 22.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe0eb…a7d8backed No | 74c | 21.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 73c | 20.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe549…a14ebacked No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbce0…f095backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 28 | 89.3%25 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 74cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2c…0746backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68d3…7cb3backed No | 68c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x780a…5530backed No | 71c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or higher on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.