TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,894

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,894 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes4c3,160$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.72,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c939.39$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.172,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e20…0815backed No80c760.93$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.31862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f87…0918backed Yes25c699.87$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.973732.4%12 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa06e…eba4backed Yes18c502.09$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.134520%9 W · 36 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8394…8d66backed Yes25c431.58$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.361050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes19c400.69$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.4617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf641…2b4abacked Yes3c374.65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.714915.4%23 W · 126 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked No75c331.98$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.7626265.6%172 W · 90 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes9c325.42$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7484124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes27c311.06$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.8419426.3%51 W · 143 L-0.9wins0.00per pick27cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes15c302.6$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4630428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes30c300$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.74,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes33c299.99$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9911533%38 W · 77 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No72c277.73$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.762,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes5c270$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6419617.9%35 W · 161 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes23c258.89$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4477428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No69c258.1$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.563,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes29c252.6$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.8556627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe64d…5e09backed Yes4c252.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1013315%20 W · 113 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes10c248.71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes12c218.8$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.337,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes20c204.27$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8693034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7141…7900backed Yes17c200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348433.3%28 W · 56 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e3c…eba1backed No72c172.31$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.7713453.7%72 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No73c169.3$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.032,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb31d…b920backed Yes30c167.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5018035%63 W · 117 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68db…44f0backed Yes32c155.26$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5019148.2%92 W · 99 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No71c143.45$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.98,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No72c138.39$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.1391967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63e3…27ffbacked Yes32c135$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb705…2c6ebacked Yes29c134$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.28250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x094a…1274backed Yes32c123.23$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397728.6%22 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes29c119.8$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1641845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x37a2…4965backed Yes21c118.71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.055228.8%15 W · 37 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+43.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x65b1…9b3ebacked No70c114.59$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.385100%5 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd11c…ff7dbacked No68c106.52$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0934748.7%169 W · 178 L+13.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b47…c0dabacked Yes31c105.4$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.292737%10 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+33.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1230…8e43backed No75c100.63$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6315155.6%84 W · 67 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d7e…ad97backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2611956.3%67 W · 52 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3906…f74bbacked No70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306053.3%32 W · 28 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7736930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No71c95.35$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3686050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes24c91.96$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9654037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefae…3acebacked Yes26c89.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5926827.2%73 W · 195 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a3a…fc88backed Yes33c89.93$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303633.3%12 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes17c87.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.191,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfda7…cf3bbacked Yes35c86.31$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes30c85$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.253,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x628a…464abacked No73c81.72$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.72560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34ab…4e36backed No75c80.04$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0419772.6%143 W · 54 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No74c77.44$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1452571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4156…997ebacked Yes27c77$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.798636%31 W · 55 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2055942.6%238 W · 321 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cde…476ebacked Yes32c70$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7216336.2%59 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb608…881ebacked Yes28c69.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.318842.6%80 W · 108 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cc…102abacked Yes27c69.93$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No70c67.7$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.241,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes15c67.52$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2322236.5%81 W · 141 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b4a…255dbacked Yes30c67.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201030%3 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No72c62.59$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49d7…1635backed No67c62.1$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.615453.7%29 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes32c62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.842,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes29c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1163538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes28c52.93$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.677,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.54233.3%14 W · 28 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaf9…ae91backed No71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1412735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf785…2e62backed Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+48.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed Yes26c49.95$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9954232.3%175 W · 367 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No74c49.11$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.961,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fd3…433fbacked No68c45$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes28c42.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.952,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe273…e74bbacked Yes29c41.69$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.942445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes27c40.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8822028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed No73c40.34$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1132548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes30c39.21$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.851,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98e9…a2f8backed No73c36.07$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7411872.9%86 W · 32 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x653f…4eccbacked No72c36$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1869…9449backed Yes29c35$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.151729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+30.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1345…e4debacked No72c34.74$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.887676.3%58 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3557…ae87backed No74c33.92$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.921540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No74c33.81$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.777375.3%55 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick73cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No74c33.78$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.781,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e77…f4d7backed Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1be9…c899backed No68c29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.28475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5be9…bf5cbacked No70c28.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.574757.4%27 W · 20 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No73c27.13$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4248672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6de1…5301backed No74c27.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.036985.5%59 W · 10 L+10.0wins+0.14per pick71cpaid+31.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x28c1…291bbacked No68c26$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.32250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No80c25.71$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1858349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc52…6ea2backed No68c22.22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.112138.1%8 W · 13 L-4.0wins-0.19per pick57cpaid-43.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe0eb…a7d8backed No74c21.51$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.515874.1%43 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No73c20.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.571,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe549…a14ebacked No74c20.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.271586.7%13 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick71cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbce0…f095backed No74c20.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.272889.3%25 W · 3 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick74cpaid+21.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7a2c…0746backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.95872.4%42 W · 16 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x68d3…7cb3backed No68c19$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.082100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x780a…5530backed No71c19$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.51250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.