Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed2f98485c3c4fd1e04a5da6ca723e24dac7f8f1693474e331c5e3f54092d1c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,920 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 15c | 1,984$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.47 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,784$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.24 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,559$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.56 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 20c | 1,362$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.27 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 5c | 1,239$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.51 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 10c | 665.31$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.68 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa06e…eba4backed Yes | 36c | 609.42$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.44 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 8c | 559.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef4…9729backed No | 73c | 519.3$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.92 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2be…4a4cbacked Yes | 24c | 494.83$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.91 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 485$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.65 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 25c | 419.69$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.54 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 24c | 408.71$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.39 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…0918backed No | 76c | 399.98$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.99 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 8c | 356.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 64c | 350.69$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.74 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 59c | 341.98$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.29 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 41c | 337.39$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.06 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 22c | 334$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 18c | 309.73$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.61 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 60c | 229.24$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.07 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5f…2ec8backed Yes | 18c | 222.06$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 8c | 200.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 6c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x542f…916abacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 199.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 65c | 190$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.1 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 18c | 190$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…bc90backed Yes | 14c | 173.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37a2…4965backed Yes | 15c | 164.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 79c | 164$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…9802backed Yes | 37c | 155.68$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.56 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 15c | 152.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 75c | 139.94$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 54c | 133.75$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.33 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes | 25c | 123.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 78c | 118.98$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes | 21c | 116.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c5…01d0backed Yes | 20c | 113$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d0…794bbacked Yes | 40c | 112.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 16c | 110$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 23c | 105.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 52c | 105.73$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d7…1635backed Yes | 23c | 100.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 51c | 99.96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 95.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 14c | 94.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 54c | 92.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ae…9910backed Yes | 22c | 92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x788f…c351backed Yes | 17c | 89.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 25c | 84.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1869…9449backed Yes | 16c | 76.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 26c | 75.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.75 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 75c | 75.47$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfda7…cf3bbacked Yes | 68c | 73.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 28c | 71.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed No | 71c | 70.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4146…8d09backed No | 72c | 69.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 67.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 79c | 60.2$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…1b47backed Yes | 67c | 55.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 21c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8e…31c0backed Yes | 20c | 54.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 39c | 51.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 78c | 49.74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4f…6689backed No | 80c | 49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac3…bafbbacked Yes | 23c | 48.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 55c | 47.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 53c | 43.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 77c | 42.17$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…946cbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +40%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1a…ba31backed No | 78c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 37.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 39c | 37.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…509cbacked Yes | 27c | 36.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5620…0e31backed No | 79c | 31.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…c944backed No | 78c | 28.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e88…ab30backed Yes | 47c | 28.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc264…7793backed No | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3bb…50ddbacked No | 80c | 27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 45c | 26.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13d6…9717backed No | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…6087backed Yes | 75c | 23.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03cb…55c3backed No | 80c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 70c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90d…bfd3backed Yes | 54c | 20.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ee…aa3cbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or higher on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.