TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$46,920

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,920 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4da2…41e5backed Yes15c1,984$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.479929.3%29 W · 70 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+0.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes8c1,784$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.2443021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes6c1,559$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.562,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes20c1,362$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.271,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes5c1,239$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5196313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes10c665.31$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.6816520.6%34 W · 131 L+0.3wins0.00per pick20cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa06e…eba4backed Yes36c609.42$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.444520%9 W · 36 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes8c559.14$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.762347.3%17 W · 217 L+0.1wins0.00per pick7cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ef4…9729backed No73c519.3$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.921963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.5wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+137.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd2be…4a4cbacked Yes24c494.83$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.912445.8%11 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes54c485$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.656,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes25c419.69$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.5456627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes24c408.71$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.3977428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f87…0918backed No76c399.98$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.993732.4%12 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes8c356.88$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2185330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No64c350.69$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.7458349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes59c341.98$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.2924932.9%82 W · 167 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-32.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes41c337.39$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.0611533%38 W · 77 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes22c334$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7314338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes18c309.73$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6119426.3%51 W · 143 L-0.9wins0.00per pick27cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes4c300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e3c…eba1backed No60c229.24$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.0713453.7%72 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f5f…2ec8backed Yes18c222.06$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.061926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes8c200.87$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7484124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes6c200$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1334918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x542f…916abacked Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.26per pick52cpaid+34.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed No80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4025549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes20c199.24$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.147,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes65c190$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.136930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1348…7037backed Yes18c190$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.517665.9%116 W · 60 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe7f4…bc90backed Yes14c173.54$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.942020%4 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-52.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c166.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.672,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37a2…4965backed Yes15c164.65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.415228.8%15 W · 37 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+43.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No79c164$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2361760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa306…9802backed Yes37c155.68$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.562944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes15c152.04$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.138,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed No75c139.94$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.3832548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdda…310cbacked Yes54c133.75$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.336737.3%25 W · 42 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes25c123.93$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.796033.3%20 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes20c120$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2430428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No78c118.98$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4886050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes21c116.59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254332.6%14 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6c5…01d0backed Yes20c113$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0d0…794bbacked Yes40c112.7$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes16c110$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.820027.5%55 W · 145 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes23c105.79$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.672,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked Yes52c105.73$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5559440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49d7…1635backed Yes23c100.84$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.195453.7%29 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfecc…77dabacked Yes51c99.96$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3540438.1%154 W · 250 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes28c95.61$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xefae…3acebacked Yes14c94.67$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9626827.2%73 W · 195 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa336…43f1backed Yes54c92.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015047.3%71 W · 79 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa1ae…9910backed Yes22c92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x788f…c351backed Yes17c89.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8650%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes25c84.82$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.361,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1869…9449backed Yes16c76.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.091729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+30.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No26c75.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.7559742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x6372…4a25backed No75c75.47$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5141070.5%289 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfda7…cf3bbacked Yes68c73.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Yes28c71.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040935%143 W · 266 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb6c…ee14backed No71c70.24$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.25058%29 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cde…476ebacked Yes17c70$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0516336.2%59 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4146…8d09backed No72c69.98$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.591060%6 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes15c67.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.397,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No79c60.2$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.691,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xed24…1b47backed Yes67c55.15$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.955141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0514…4fefbacked Yes21c55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5519531.3%61 W · 134 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa8e…31c0backed Yes20c54.71$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+49.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No39c51.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.932,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.54233.3%14 W · 28 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe11d…44ecbacked No40c49.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3018041.7%75 W · 105 L-0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No78c49.74$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0654037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd4f…6689backed No80c49$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ac3…bafbbacked Yes23c48.73$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-32.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No55c47.75$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.431,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes53c43.96$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.361,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No77c42.17$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5391967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99f1…946cbacked Yes27c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.83053.3%16 W · 14 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+40%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9e1a…ba31backed No78c39$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.58250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No78c37.78$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.462,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes39c37.64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.671,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xe42d…509cbacked Yes27c36.55$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5620…0e31backed No79c31.24$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e9e…c944backed No78c28.06$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e88…ab30backed Yes47c28.06$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.13850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+26.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No72c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.844,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc264…7793backed No78c27$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3bb…50ddbacked No80c27$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick76cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…ef1cbacked No45c26.37$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.521848.6%106 W · 112 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13d6…9717backed No78c26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55850%29 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41e0…6087backed Yes75c23.52$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.561687.5%14 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.17per pick71cpaid+43.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf967…1adfbacked No69c21.74$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7431262.5%195 W · 117 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03cb…55c3backed No80c21$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a04…b254backed Yes70c21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.759818.4%110 W · 488 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd90d…bfd3backed Yes54c20.16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79ee…aa3cbacked No80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.05862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6400…331abacked No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.642469.1%293 W · 131 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.