TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$177,177

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $177,177 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x261f…2fa4backed No0c50,200$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.81428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+62.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53fe…5b95backed No0c7,596$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.81421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-62.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47a3…5392backed No2c6,650$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.3630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes9c5,013$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,577.712,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes29c4,278$1,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,033.8743021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd43f…561dbacked No1c4,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab2a…aa5cbacked No1c3,449$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2860%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ef4…9729backed Yes69c1,766$1,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.611963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.5wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+137.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed No3c1,545$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.171,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes49c1,256$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.191,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No73c1,077$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.0419060.5%115 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe961…8dcabacked No1c928.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c834.84$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.532,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed No6c777.21$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4433620.2%68 W · 268 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes21c739.51$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.4356627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked Yes77c701.63$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.0526265.6%172 W · 90 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes40c619.85$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.5277428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No9c550.32$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5059742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed No4c545.27$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1796313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes16c528.02$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.7330428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes35c511.39$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.071,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2be…4a4cbacked Yes33c487.82$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.032445.8%11 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes22c485$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.666,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes16c436.55$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.9284124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No41c374.15$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.3158349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes17c369.63$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.2234319.5%67 W · 276 L+22.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes26c339.16$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.7719426.3%51 W · 143 L-0.9wins0.00per pick27cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes60c327.51$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.642,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f87…0918backed No65c322.74$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.783732.4%12 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No75c313.6$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.867158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdda…310cbacked Yes36c313.48$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.836737.3%25 W · 42 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes34c300$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19811533%38 W · 77 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes30c300$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2104,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed No61c292.09$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.532548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes27c281.69$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.4616520.6%34 W · 131 L+0.3wins0.00per pick20cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes13c212.58$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.9717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes13c212.32$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.4620027.5%55 W · 145 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x45c1…4a23backed No12c209.24$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.91978.9%15 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick66cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed No11c205.65$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.592347.3%17 W · 217 L+0.1wins0.00per pick7cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e3c…eba1backed No68c203$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.2713453.7%72 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4701…ca83backed No67c197.99$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.6616456.7%93 W · 71 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes26c189.72$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.3885330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb6c…ee14backed No43c184.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.225058%29 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5421…3b38backed Yes28c184.5$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.89825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes25c180$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.71,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8394…8d66backed No61c174.4$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.81050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No37c172.05$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes20c169.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.5993034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6423…2019backed No15c161.29$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.77757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb429…8bebbacked Yes39c159$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a39…acc7backed Yes35c156.6$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.799160.4%55 W · 36 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa306…9802backed Yes44c156$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.852944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfecc…77dabacked Yes32c150$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10240438.1%154 W · 250 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No56c148.21$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.891,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes34c144.88$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.3324932.9%82 W · 167 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-32.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes12c141.4$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.0215626.3%41 W · 115 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No70c136.91$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.383,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae13…16c6backed Yes35c129$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x094a…1274backed Yes37c123.87$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.877728.6%22 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe190…e93dbacked Yes45c120$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No55c120$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabcc…32f6backed Yes42c119.39$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.391060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5504…665dbacked No67c117.99$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.0510055%55 W · 45 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No65c117.43$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.241,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f6b…a8a5backed Yes37c111$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes33c106.25$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.525536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes33c105.03$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.036033.3%20 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7f4…bc90backed No46c103$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.282020%4 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-52.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefae…3acebacked Yes22c102.69$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.8126827.2%73 W · 195 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x515f…a606backed No67c102$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3417553.1%93 W · 82 L-8.3wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes11c100$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed24…1b47backed Yes33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x03d8…5e9abacked Yes32c100$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x865d…47aabacked Yes12c100$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8816432.9%54 W · 110 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+47.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x99e7…44c3backed Yes13c100$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.66729.9%20 W · 47 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes28c100$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7236930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4f0…0bd2backed No67c91.41$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.249250%46 W · 46 L-9.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-20.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x49d7…1635backed Yes36c89.9$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.295453.7%29 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f0c…1fb7backed Yes35c85.64$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.643850%19 W · 19 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+21.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed No66c84$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7742857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0514…4fefbacked Yes30c82.09$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.7419531.3%61 W · 134 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a3a…fc88backed Yes38c79.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.993633.3%12 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes31c79.79$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.794332.6%14 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes19c78.85$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.8622236.5%81 W · 141 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4156…997ebacked Yes29c76.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.668636%31 W · 55 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes61c75.03$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3719449%95 W · 99 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f96…d4aabacked No67c75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.412860.7%17 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3735…5a5bbacked No66c74.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5515136.4%55 W · 96 L-11.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1869…9449backed Yes30c73.17$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.331729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+30.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes77c71.35$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4118255.5%101 W · 81 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No68c71.24$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2386050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cde…476ebacked Yes33c70$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.816336.2%59 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4146…8d09backed No55c69.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.671060%6 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cc…102abacked Yes26c69.66$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.662123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7df…1d0dbacked No61c69$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.09250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes30c67.49$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.267,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb608…881ebacked Yes34c66.87$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.0818842.6%80 W · 108 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xedfa…832cbacked No61c63$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x56f2…bfa5backed No65c63$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.