Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e66d2a86e836fa903e2be4bfcf95230f73de35349e258d5c0b1f4a931d83d06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $177,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $177,177 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x261f…2fa4backed No | 0c | 50,200$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.8 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53fe…5b95backed No | 0c | 7,596$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47a3…5392backed No | 2c | 6,650$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 9c | 5,013$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,577.71 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 29c | 4,278$1,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,033.87 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd43f…561dbacked No | 1c | 4,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab2a…aa5cbacked No | 1c | 3,449$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef4…9729backed Yes | 69c | 1,766$1,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.61 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 3c | 1,545$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 49c | 1,256$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.19 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 73c | 1,077$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.04 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe961…8dcabacked No | 1c | 928.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 834.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 6c | 777.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 21c | 739.51$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.43 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 77c | 701.63$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.05 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 40c | 619.85$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.52 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 9c | 550.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 4c | 545.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 16c | 528.02$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.73 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 35c | 511.39$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.07 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2be…4a4cbacked Yes | 33c | 487.82$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.03 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 485$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.66 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 16c | 436.55$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.92 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 41c | 374.15$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.31 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 17c | 369.63$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.22 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 26c | 339.16$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.77 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 60c | 327.51$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.64 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…0918backed No | 65c | 322.74$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.78 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 75c | 313.6$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.8 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 36c | 313.48$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.83 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 61c | 292.09$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.5 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 27c | 281.69$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.46 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 212.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 13c | 212.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.46 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45c1…4a23backed No | 12c | 209.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 66cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed No | 11c | 205.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 68c | 203$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.27 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 67c | 197.99$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.66 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 26c | 189.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.38 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed No | 43c | 184.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.22 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5421…3b38backed Yes | 28c | 184.5$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.89 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 25c | 180$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.7 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8394…8d66backed No | 61c | 174.4$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 172.05$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 20c | 169.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.59 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6423…2019backed No | 15c | 161.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb429…8bebbacked Yes | 39c | 159$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed Yes | 35c | 156.6$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.79 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…9802backed Yes | 44c | 156$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.85 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 56c | 148.21$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.89 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 34c | 144.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.33 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 12c | 141.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.02 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 136.91$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.38 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae13…16c6backed Yes | 35c | 129$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…1274backed Yes | 37c | 123.87$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.87 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe190…e93dbacked Yes | 45c | 120$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 55c | 120$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabcc…32f6backed Yes | 42c | 119.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.39 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 67c | 117.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.05 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 65c | 117.43$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.24 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6b…a8a5backed Yes | 37c | 111$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 33c | 106.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes | 33c | 105.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.03 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…bc90backed No | 46c | 103$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 22c | 102.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.81 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 67c | 102$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.34 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…1b47backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d8…5e9abacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99e7…44c3backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.6 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 67c | 91.41$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.24 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49d7…1635backed Yes | 36c | 89.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.29 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0c…1fb7backed Yes | 35c | 85.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.64 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 66c | 84$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.77 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 30c | 82.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.74 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…fc88backed Yes | 38c | 79.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes | 31c | 79.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.79 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 19c | 78.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.86 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 29c | 76.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.66 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 61c | 75.03$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f96…d4aabacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 66c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1869…9449backed Yes | 30c | 73.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 77c | 71.35$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 68c | 71.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4146…8d09backed No | 55c | 69.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cc…102abacked Yes | 26c | 69.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7df…1d0dbacked No | 61c | 69$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 67.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.26 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 34c | 66.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedfa…832cbacked No | 61c | 63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f2…bfa5backed No | 65c | 63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or higher on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.