Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x224b7c3fc96f19a700292c5e07f5b3fb6371bed3c52d5a6b1a15ce58a2f61f3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,052
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,052 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 14c | 148.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 47c | 125$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.55 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 32c | 116.08$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.22 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 71c | 115.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.75 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.92 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.08 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 14c | 93.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 85.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 66c | 80.22$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 54c | 76.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 32c | 67.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.24 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 43c | 66.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe43a…61cbbacked Yes | 58c | 66.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…5411backed No | 20c | 59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 80c | 59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3127…6f1bbacked Yes | 45c | 57.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d35…3d76backed No | 52c | 57.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 72c | 56.92$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 42c | 55.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 40c | 49.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 66c | 49.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 50c | 46.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 42c | 46.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 48c | 43.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 28c | 41.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 40.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 61c | 40.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 50c | 39.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 57c | 39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 58c | 37.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 53c | 33.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes | 47c | 31.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 64c | 25.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5276…800dbacked Yes | 49c | 25.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa6…49a1backed No | 63c | 24.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 60c | 24.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 57c | 24.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf43…66f5backed Yes | 41c | 24.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 61c | 24.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 53c | 23.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 53c | 23.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 54c | 23.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89cf…76b3backed No | 67c | 22.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 70c | 21.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…edf2backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x744a…0ea8backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 55c | 19.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked Yes | 73c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 68c | 14.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C or below on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.