Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: Xtreme (-1.5) vs REKONIX (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22750a13e2735be8ce62a0c180c90277390e340e98f83032cfc1e4cdecf6fd90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Xtreme Gamingof Xtreme Gaming, REKONIX
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed REKONIX | 48c | 2,782$1,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,335.28 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0993…525fbacked REKONIX | 48c | 2,489$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,201.14 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…d49fbacked Xtreme Gaming | 52c | 2,146$1,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.08 | 174 | 52.3%91 W · 83 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b17…d36dbacked Xtreme Gaming | 52c | 1,087$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.54 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc3…f923backed Xtreme Gaming | 52c | 1,054$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.75 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x657a…d1f4backed Xtreme Gaming | 50c | 1,030$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…7c38backed REKONIX | 50c | 700$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 160 | 55.6%89 W · 71 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed REKONIX | 47c | 327.09$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.49 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed REKONIX | 49c | 267.1$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.88 | 410 | 50.2%206 W · 204 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked Xtreme Gaming | 53c | 222.11$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.39 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ba…4212backed Xtreme Gaming | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…57c1backed Xtreme Gaming | 51c | 172.55$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.55 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Xtreme Gaming | 50c | 144.29$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.57 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x591d…f4dfbacked Xtreme Gaming | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Xtreme Gaming | 53c | 110.86$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Xtreme Gaming | 52c | 99.97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.39 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked Xtreme Gaming | 52c | 95.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.71 | 338 | 54.1%183 W · 155 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21e2…07e8backed Xtreme Gaming | 52c | 94.23$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc69b…2076backed REKONIX | 48c | 76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2338…27f6backed Xtreme Gaming | 52c | 75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce8…2686backed REKONIX | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 145 | 66.2%96 W · 49 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Xtreme Gaming | 52c | 46.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb04d…2b19backed REKONIX | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a29…836dbacked Xtreme Gaming | 52c | 38.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked REKONIX | 45c | 33.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b2…633abacked REKONIX | 49c | 32.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5000…c2bebacked Xtreme Gaming | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Xtreme (-1.5) vs REKONIX (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: REKONIX vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - Games of the Future Group DXtreme Gaming won
- Dota 2: REKONIX vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 WinnerXtreme Gaming won
- Dota 2: REKONIX vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 WinnerXtreme Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.