Mls · resolved market
Will San Jose Earthquakes vs. Austin FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22a6d60d8913a68dd5ecaa0b72965cba4ee5727f38c82d6bce2c51c9ffa724e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,755
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,755 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 72c | 2,485$1,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.03 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked No | 76c | 2,061$1,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.51 | 147 | 61.2%90 W · 57 L | +20.8wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 16c | 1,707$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.16 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 68c | 1,405$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.69 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 68c | 1,041$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.4 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 28c | 941.34$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.97 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 35c | 910.25$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.19 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bd…478fbacked Yes | 32c | 901.07$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.75 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Yes | 28c | 745.63$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.68 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Yes | 31c | 597.25$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.81 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4658backed No | 70c | 482.61$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.67 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 40c | 388.98$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.14 | 190 | 73.7%140 W · 50 L | +18.6wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 24c | 313.14$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.46 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 34c | 275.04$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.38 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed No | 60c | 252.13$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.85 | 93 | 57%53 W · 40 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked No | 61c | 226.61$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.65 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 33c | 215.25$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.33 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 35c | 203.94$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.88 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 70c | 155.51$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.04 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 136.37$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Yes | 26c | 126.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Yes | 36c | 111.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…abe1backed No | 75c | 105.4$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 79 | 74.7%59 W · 20 L | +10.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb43b…f637backed Yes | 30c | 102.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Yes | 33c | 90.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 24c | 77.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 67c | 76.81$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfc…5c8ebacked Yes | 20c | 71.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 34c | 59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac7…1ad5backed No | 55c | 53.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked Yes | 33c | 47.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…8263backed Yes | 38c | 30.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7faf…e2b5backed No | 69c | 24.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 78c | 22.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed No | 69c | 21.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -11.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked No | 64c | 20.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 202 | 52%105 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 60c | 19.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 72c | 19.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 134 | 64.9%87 W · 47 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will San Jose Earthquakes vs. Austin FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Austin FC win on 2026-04-22?No won
- Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-04-22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.