MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22ae57aa6137c6c6dac7cf8ecd900ca0dc25c3452b7ce327cb9b9948196ec2e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 57c | 2,245$1,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,271.04 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…d56cbacked Under | 57c | 1,456$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.86 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…920fbacked Under | 57c | 868.42$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Over | 34c | 805$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.25 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 42c | 791.62$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.14 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 630.32$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.1 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 43c | 602.5$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.48 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 69c | 514$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.34 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 43c | 500$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 44c | 480.66$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.17 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 54c | 446.44$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.08 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 419.33$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.37 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 34c | 342.48$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.8 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 53c | 328.68$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.06 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Over | 68c | 257$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.52 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 40c | 208$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.85 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 45c | 202$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 51c | 191.92$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.87 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 43c | 128.18$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.06 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 44c | 103.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Over | 43c | 78.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e69…30a0backed Over | 43c | 65.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 47c | 64.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 70c | 61.71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 36c | 59.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Under | 54c | 45.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 46c | 42.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 58c | 42.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 52c | 40.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 41c | 38.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d69…ab3abacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a66…a5d7backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 53c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Under | 77c | 30.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 53c | 29.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 69c | 23.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 59c | 18.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 68c | 17.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Over | 71c | 14.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 12.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.