South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-03-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22b2a9b56554a645affe8d28a627ea5dc440a25820602e3c04937809d300e310
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,925 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 22c | 2,365$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.94 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked No | 61c | 1,500$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.98 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 30c | 1,420$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.22 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 60c | 1,381$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.72 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f9…87b0backed No | 60c | 1,315$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.12 | 183 | 52.5%96 W · 87 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 40c | 1,129$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.8 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 72c | 672.12$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.33 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 79c | 583.2$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.83 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 72c | 536.15$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.36 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Yes | 35c | 525.71$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc2…4c80backed No | 68c | 450$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 40c | 436.64$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.54 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…24f0backed No | 61c | 368.85$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.85 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 66c | 353.96$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.61 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 59c | 326.88$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.86 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 35c | 266.18$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.12 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfec0…aeb9backed Yes | 41c | 262.38$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.08 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Yes | 40c | 230.3$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.42 | 337 | 45.4%153 W · 184 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd87e…20ebbacked Yes | 36c | 229.31$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.55 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 6c | 195.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 59c | 180$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 39c | 177.34$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.89 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x724c…1521backed Yes | 61c | 164.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed No | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | +12.3wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked No | 38c | 149.68$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.8 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a6…7971backed Yes | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 120.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 32c | 116.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…f943backed No | 34c | 101.47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.97 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 28c | 90.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Yes | 29c | 87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 60c | 78.37$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 39c | 76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a84…3598backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 39c | 70.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 31c | 70.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked No | 35c | 68.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.57 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed No | 75c | 66.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 39c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 41c | 58.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363e…ae45backed No | 29c | 57.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a7…8102backed Yes | 35c | 53.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Yes | 39c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Yes | 39c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Yes | 39c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Yes | 39c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed No | 65c | 50.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…ade4backed No | 65c | 50.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Yes | 40c | 49.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 290 | 53.8%156 W · 134 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed No | 62c | 48.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 71c | 46.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b35…768ebacked Yes | 41c | 46.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…b39dbacked Yes | 50c | 44.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 45c | 43.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…b7b5backed No | 59c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed No | 40c | 39.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 313 | 55.6%174 W · 139 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 60c | 37.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…d370backed Yes | 40c | 30.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6f…e57cbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 39c | 28.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x079c…a211backed No | 65c | 27.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Yes | 68c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4024…4f45backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…cb95backed Yes | 64c | 17.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 62c | 16.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-03-15?this page
- Will Red Bull Bragantino vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw?No won
- Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-03-15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.