La Liga · resolved market
Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22bb4c901417e080dff7e0888bb9d0c443e62d5ff4669859772379c72471723f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,635
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 4,763$3,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,097.3 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…0b06backed Over | 28c | 2,066$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 28c | 1,446$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 177 | 31.1%55 W · 122 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 24c | 1,294$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 15c | 1,100$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.99 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 108 | 20.4%22 W · 86 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 72c | 677.5$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.95 | 354 | 42.7%151 W · 203 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…60d6backed Under | 76c | 270$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 28c | 185$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 114 | 27.2%31 W · 83 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb66…c8dfbacked Under | 73c | 140$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 28c | 125$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6c…0319backed Over | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under | 75c | 106.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 25c | 106.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 1,081 | 50.6%547 W · 534 L | +11.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…e84dbacked Over | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 72c | 99.42$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 454 | 50%227 W · 227 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 27c | 93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 1,176 | 51.9%610 W · 566 L | +18.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe2…6829backed Under | 76c | 82$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 72c | 76.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 482 | 51.2%247 W · 235 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4b…c865backed Over | 28c | 67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc575…1002backed Over | 27c | 63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 204 | 41.7%85 W · 119 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 72c | 52.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 226 | 58.4%132 W · 94 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 72c | 47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 1,566 | 51.6%808 W · 758 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d5…11f0backed Under | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 77c | 35.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 744 | 57.5%428 W · 316 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed Under | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 214 | 57.5%123 W · 91 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked Under | 78c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 113 | 66.4%75 W · 38 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 261 | 54.4%142 W · 119 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 73c | 22.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 170 | 61.2%104 W · 66 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 78c | 22.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 227 | 60.4%137 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 281 | 38.8%109 W · 172 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 75c | 20.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 156 | 55.8%87 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | -9.0wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 72c | 19.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 481 | 53.6%258 W · 223 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4436…cf98backed Under | 73c | 19.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…bcb3backed Under | 73c | 16.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 148 | 56.8%84 W · 64 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed Under | 77c | 14.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…3e9fbacked Under | 73c | 13.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 3.5this page
- Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 1.5Under won
- Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5Under won
- Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-1.5)Sevilla FC won
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-2.5)Sevilla FC won
- Spread: Sevilla FC (-1.5)Real Sociedad de Fútbol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.