TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Syntax vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Syntaxof Team Syntax, Spirit Academy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$126,573
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$152,735

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,573 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 174 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x04f6…f24abacked Team Syntax44c9,444$4,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,289.350347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefdd…1e8abacked Team Syntax48c8,059$3,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,183.0915050%75 W · 75 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x920b…47d2backed Spirit Academy52c7,550$3,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,957.45520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-67%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Spirit Academy54c6,582$3,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,552.9189741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Team Syntax43c5,850$2,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,330.5554246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0478…37c3backed Spirit Academy50c4,282$2,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,161.04742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Syntax53c3,701$1,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,743.32,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa80c…5a6dbacked Spirit Academy65c3,474$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,249.821181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick63cpaid+33.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Team Syntax47c3,135$1,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,645.9225446.1%117 W · 137 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed Team Syntax64c2,982$1,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,071.648057.1%274 W · 206 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3bc…5bd2backed Team Syntax39c2,302$909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,392.6513943.9%61 W · 78 L-11.8wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-17.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1186…0355backed Spirit Academy49c2,265$1,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,117.962540%10 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked Spirit Academy56c2,221$1,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,243.691844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed Team Syntax55c2,023$1,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$913.6430356.4%171 W · 132 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Team Syntax57c2,002$1,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.879859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Spirit Academy62c1,750$1,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,082.0495342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87e6…9c8abacked Spirit Academy37c1,448$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.2812253.3%65 W · 57 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Spirit Academy44c1,395$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.6828044.3%124 W · 156 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Spirit Academy30c1,371$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.2679341.7%331 W · 462 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe222…6019backed Spirit Academy60c1,346$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.112250%11 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf52…efdfbacked Team Syntax49c1,219$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.0921558.6%126 W · 89 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed Spirit Academy54c1,205$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.8157449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Spirit Academy52c1,114$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.171,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Team Syntax44c1,062$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.6769132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba57…1e84backed Team Syntax48c1,010$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.1915050.7%76 W · 74 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Spirit Academy54c1,001$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.4150850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1d5…54d5backed Team Syntax49c992.24$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.843528.6%10 W · 25 L-6.3wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-45.3%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x08ee…ffe2backed Team Syntax47c965.35$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.223951.3%20 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0273…f081backed Team Syntax64c947.13$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.8615639.1%61 W · 95 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ae0…8661backed Team Syntax37c937.43$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.4315940.9%65 W · 94 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…d03fbacked Spirit Academy75c929.6$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.3817965.4%117 W · 62 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7437…142dbacked Team Syntax44c878.06$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.711070%7 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+18.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed Team Syntax65c840.58$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.0551049%250 W · 260 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa20d…6ba4backed Spirit Academy19c800$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.6914751%75 W · 72 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Spirit Academy44c732.72$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.827639.5%30 W · 46 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb84…21a7backed Spirit Academy58c724.19$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.862458.3%14 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick61cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Spirit Academy54c718.75$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.0199844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Team Syntax53c685.81$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.9125143.4%109 W · 142 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b7e…ef88backed Spirit Academy44c673.31$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.288425%21 W · 63 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-37.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51be…12c2backed Spirit Academy43c639.63$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27519251%98 W · 94 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c71…c0e5backed Team Syntax55c600$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2708550.6%43 W · 42 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6eac…e409backed Spirit Academy56c600$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.1610961.5%67 W · 42 L+11.6wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x191b…5b67backed Team Syntax58c592.08$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.674346.5%20 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed Team Syntax44c568$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.0834443.9%151 W · 193 L-0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b7c…763fbacked Spirit Academy54c559.76$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d40…dd57backed Team Syntax51c532.69$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.693132.3%10 W · 21 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-30.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed Team Syntax46c500$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27050769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Syntax48c500$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2601,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd75a…d264backed Spirit Academy43c492.7$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.074930.6%15 W · 34 L-7.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-40.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x54bc…b4e9backed Spirit Academy63c478.96$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+38.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Syntax44c464.59$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.172,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59cb…57d1backed Team Syntax54c462.96$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.967255.6%40 W · 32 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ec1…9a95backed Team Syntax46c461$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.025328.3%15 W · 38 L-9.3wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-43.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x3e3b…be27backed Team Syntax73c455.07$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.0721047.6%100 W · 110 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4114…f750backed Team Syntax46c449.18$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.652147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Syntax52c431.08$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.81,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe846…252bbacked Team Syntax56c393.7$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.5810349.5%51 W · 52 L+8.6wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+22%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x93b6…5d73backed Team Syntax38c386.84$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.7813336.8%49 W · 84 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaebf…4e6abacked Spirit Academy57c377$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.582245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x382c…2261backed Team Syntax53c371.67$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.1721155%116 W · 95 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x050e…d92fbacked Spirit Academy57c360$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.473658.3%21 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f6…38e8backed Spirit Academy10c342.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.723323%10 W · 322 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-57.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Team Syntax57c339.43$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.591,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6d3…bab9backed Team Syntax47c320.01$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.617041.4%29 W · 41 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked Spirit Academy33c307$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.1454058.9%318 W · 222 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf186…03a9backed Spirit Academy37c300$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1111145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x070f…ed83backed Spirit Academy53c299.99$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.9926247.7%125 W · 137 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d16…e42bbacked Spirit Academy57c289.44$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1642250%11 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b50…fd61backed Team Syntax61c285$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.15966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3123…b44dbacked Spirit Academy56c280$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15712568%85 W · 40 L+12.7wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+13.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Spirit Academy54c278$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.864547.8%308 W · 337 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Team Syntax49c269.51$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.8789238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8776…f2efbacked Spirit Academy38c265.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Team Syntax46c262.1$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.461,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed Team Syntax44c257.33$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.1641655.3%230 W · 186 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a9c…bfe2backed Team Syntax46c255.93$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.191442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-25.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed Team Syntax39c250.17$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.6712740.2%51 W · 76 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Team Syntax47c250$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.9947951.8%248 W · 231 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed Team Syntax55c250$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.528544.9%128 W · 157 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d9a…d10fbacked Spirit Academy33c250$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.511445.6%52 W · 62 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa72a…5685backed Team Syntax51c246.5$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.7913645.6%62 W · 74 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4339…beeebacked Team Syntax50c246.19$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.18055%44 W · 36 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked Spirit Academy55c242$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.161449.5%304 W · 310 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9417…bbd3backed Team Syntax52c232$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.862254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+31.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Spirit Academy32c230.89$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.181,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Syntax48c218.82$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.0189938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc0d4…0289backed Team Syntax49c205.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.15453.7%29 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9f4…c1e4backed Spirit Academy54c203.3$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.5342639.4%168 W · 258 L-39.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-31.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x63b1…1676backed Team Syntax45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11014646.6%68 W · 78 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde30…3159backed Spirit Academy56c200$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.619547.2%92 W · 103 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aff…b136backed Spirit Academy47c199.99$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9432445.1%146 W · 178 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc15f…223dbacked Team Syntax56c193.15$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.0911747.9%56 W · 61 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb797…1cf3backed Team Syntax56c190.94$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.11681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.17per pick64cpaid+25.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Spirit Academy43c190.01$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.41,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde1d…dfaabacked Spirit Academy53c188.02$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad2a…99a3backed Team Syntax45c180$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9923736.7%87 W · 150 L-17.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8e19…d2b0backed Team Syntax55c179.32$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.6912547.2%59 W · 66 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb55b…c5b4backed Spirit Academy57c175.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003452.9%18 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1785…a867backed Team Syntax59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.49650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed Spirit Academy59c168.7$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10046049.8%229 W · 231 L+2.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.