TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Syntax vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spirit Academyof Team Syntax, Spirit Academy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$126,748
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$138,495

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,748 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 180 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3413…8ff2backed Team Syntax48c20,000$9,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,599.9747646.4%221 W · 255 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Spirit Academy51c14,609$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,109.6989741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked Team Syntax48c6,026$2,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,911.7150347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Syntax58c3,879$2,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2491,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xefdd…1e8abacked Spirit Academy62c3,522$2,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,323.6215050%75 W · 75 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Spirit Academy54c3,207$1,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,474.4995342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1de…21f5backed Team Syntax51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,53030452.3%159 W · 145 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Spirit Academy62c2,865$1,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,078.3479859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed Spirit Academy70c2,687$1,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817.0248057.1%274 W · 206 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c71…c0e5backed Team Syntax39c2,551$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.458550.6%43 W · 42 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1186…0355backed Team Syntax52c2,494$1,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,289.12540%10 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked Spirit Academy66c1,919$1,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.2354058.9%318 W · 222 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Spirit Academy54c1,500$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69628044.3%124 W · 156 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Spirit Academy54c1,243$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.2689238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf6f…9f0abacked Team Syntax53c1,234$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.0416139.8%64 W · 97 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Spirit Academy57c1,230$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.950850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Team Syntax30c1,191$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.1932549.8%162 W · 163 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9417…8440backed Team Syntax34c1,112$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.39455.3%52 W · 42 L+11.1wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+41%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Team Syntax47c1,050$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.51,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed Spirit Academy47c1,032$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.4821146.9%99 W · 112 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba57…1e84backed Spirit Academy51c1,016$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.0715050.7%76 W · 74 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf52…efdfbacked Spirit Academy78c1,015$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.121558.6%126 W · 89 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed Team Syntax29c1,000$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.2757449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0698…b91dbacked Spirit Academy51c993.19$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.194332.6%14 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed Spirit Academy45c900$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49534442.2%145 W · 199 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0273…f081backed Spirit Academy80c896$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.715639.1%61 W · 95 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed Spirit Academy63c885.04$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.0430356.4%171 W · 132 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed Team Syntax44c858.38$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.5151049%250 W · 260 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed Spirit Academy47c852.42$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.4248054%259 W · 221 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e3b…be27backed Team Syntax41c851.5$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.521047.6%100 W · 110 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed Spirit Academy74c835.12$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.1372154%389 W · 332 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08ee…ffe2backed Team Syntax57c823.2$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.913951.3%20 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Team Syntax43c810.94$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.677639.5%30 W · 46 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…d03fbacked Team Syntax37c800$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29617965.4%117 W · 62 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3bc…5bd2backed Spirit Academy52c780.18$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.4913943.9%61 W · 78 L-11.8wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-17.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x63b1…1676backed Spirit Academy38c771.67$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.4414646.6%68 W · 78 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Spirit Academy51c750.01$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.251,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Spirit Academy48c684.56$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.4189938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked Team Syntax34c590.42$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20031936.7%117 W · 202 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ed…1ea1backed Spirit Academy49c555$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.058042.5%34 W · 46 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Spirit Academy57c540.39$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.242,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cfc…4f30backed Spirit Academy49c528.9$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.0337745.4%171 W · 206 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc15f…223dbacked Spirit Academy73c525.99$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.511747.9%56 W · 61 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x930b…0223backed Spirit Academy74c519.53$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.5223459%138 W · 96 L+0.6wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x070f…ed83backed Spirit Academy47c500$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26526247.7%125 W · 137 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed Team Syntax62c499.87$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.9250769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Spirit Academy78c488.85$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.9193546.4%434 W · 501 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde30…3159backed Spirit Academy69c488.51$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.8219547.2%92 W · 103 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x463f…8055backed Spirit Academy79c478.11$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.752176.2%16 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick71cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde1f…d634backed Team Syntax28c460.52$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.712725.9%7 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ec1…9a95backed Spirit Academy44c452$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.125328.3%15 W · 38 L-9.3wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-43.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x51be…12c2backed Team Syntax27c441.42$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.0719251%98 W · 94 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ae0…8661backed Team Syntax34c437.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15015940.9%65 W · 94 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Spirit Academy72c415.09$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.092955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x59cb…57d1backed Team Syntax46c413.05$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1907255.6%40 W · 32 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfce…5c3ebacked Spirit Academy56c399.37$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.761353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x880d…39bcbacked Team Syntax22c330$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.632756.9%186 W · 141 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Spirit Academy65c313.14$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.831,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked Spirit Academy61c312.56$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.563046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcb8…6b51backed Team Syntax46c310.53$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.5342053.6%225 W · 195 L+16.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba01…1a89backed Team Syntax48c309$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1475244.2%23 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf201…f884backed Spirit Academy65c307.85$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.858960.7%54 W · 35 L+8.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+9.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x37bd…ed2abacked Team Syntax53c307.75$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.147763.6%49 W · 28 L+8.8wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+21%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Spirit Academy50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf34b…bcb3backed Team Syntax50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15058356.8%331 W · 252 L+28.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f19…474ebacked Spirit Academy42c297.61$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.618541.2%35 W · 50 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Spirit Academy52c275.41$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.9753538.5%206 W · 329 L-26.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe075…bf89backed Spirit Academy56c264.29$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.293240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe694…0a08backed Team Syntax40c252.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018152.5%95 W · 86 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked Spirit Academy44c250$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.161449.5%304 W · 310 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93b6…5d73backed Spirit Academy44c245.67$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.2413336.8%49 W · 84 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Spirit Academy53c239.45$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.0166545.6%303 W · 362 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Spirit Academy61c236.78$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.9558943%253 W · 336 L-25.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6dde…efdfbacked Team Syntax48c228.65$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.533033.3%10 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc96…2791backed Spirit Academy72c227.27$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.526848.5%33 W · 35 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9d4…a3d5backed Spirit Academy73c227$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.6422954.6%125 W · 104 L-0.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Spirit Academy63c226.89$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.2953844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Spirit Academy58c225.5$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.61,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x297a…198bbacked Spirit Academy47c223$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.731154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+31.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd2b0…5e5ebacked Team Syntax5c219.6$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.98140%0 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe59f…0d08backed Team Syntax39c217$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.6321155.5%117 W · 94 L+17.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4d96…3d50backed Spirit Academy62c216.1$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.121553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bac…d241backed Spirit Academy48c206.26$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.2210138.6%39 W · 62 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bf9…ad6ebacked Spirit Academy42c200$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1167753.2%41 W · 36 L+9.4wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+22.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9aff…b136backed Spirit Academy42c200$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.6732445.1%146 W · 178 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Spirit Academy63c198.27$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.4258746.5%273 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Spirit Academy55c197.98$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.081,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Spirit Academy60c192$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.779341.7%331 W · 462 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62f7…6573backed Team Syntax45c176.56$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.592254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+33.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x37a8…8b4dbacked Spirit Academy51c170.58$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.5815957.9%92 W · 67 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Spirit Academy51c165.07$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.554246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1110…ea61backed Spirit Academy75c164.51$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.137055.7%39 W · 31 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaaa5…a94abacked Spirit Academy53c163.09$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.842060%12 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+19.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Spirit Academy62c159.43$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.9744049.3%217 W · 223 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Spirit Academy57c159.12$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.361,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82a1…e38bbacked Spirit Academy56c159$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.963345.5%15 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d16…e42bbacked Spirit Academy65c154.62$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.622250%11 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4114…f750backed Spirit Academy60c149.38$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.752147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ba4…f918backed Spirit Academy42c142.85$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.858439.3%33 W · 51 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Spirit Academy57c141.89$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.421,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.