Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C or higher on March 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22ca30de122410c19759aa29af450c6ec725846b857617e8976e63ee60f96597
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,745 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7049…2df7backed No | 1c | 2,030$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked No | 2c | 1,604$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 39c | 1,009$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.77 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 7c | 866.96$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.11 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 726.15$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 14c | 649.15$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.92 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed Yes | 11c | 627.75$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.86 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 20c | 572.5$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.87 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 532.32$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.87 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 17c | 529.52$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.18 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 38c | 456.59$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.22 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 29c | 407$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.85 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 405.33$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.91 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 392.7$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.98 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 49c | 368.37$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.09 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 76c | 287.92$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.44 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 15c | 264.84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.99 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 21c | 224.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.94 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 30c | 215.51$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.15 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7175…ae4ebacked No | 76c | 199.99$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 71c | 192.01$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.57 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 11c | 184.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.12 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 153.76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.18 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcb…48cebacked No | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 73c | 150$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 26c | 149.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.63 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…29c9backed No | 69c | 144.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d4…0c26backed Yes | 23c | 141.52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.97 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4cc…5d69backed Yes | 30c | 132$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 25c | 124.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.04 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 13c | 122.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.5 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 62c | 121.9$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 30c | 121.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.94 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 78c | 120.5$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.12 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…fb3abacked Yes | 31c | 120$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 25c | 118.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 21c | 110.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.93 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x022f…e73abacked Yes | 10c | 109.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +86%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22fe…20c6backed No | 64c | 104.56$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.92 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.99 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No | 71c | 96.77$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.24 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 70c | 94$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.42 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 88.74$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.45 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes | 18c | 85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 21c | 81.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 71.62$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 18c | 56.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.34 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 55.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f86…c99abacked No | 69c | 51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…616cbacked Yes | 31c | 49.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9acb…a48dbacked No | 70c | 49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf1…c28cbacked No | 64c | 46.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7907…2ad0backed No | 70c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 36c | 44.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…878ebacked No | 79c | 44.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 79cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 48c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 75c | 43.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 72c | 41.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2de…8209backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 36c | 39.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3bb…50ddbacked No | 70c | 38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0eb…a7d8backed No | 72c | 34.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe549…a14ebacked No | 62c | 32.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6eff…f370backed No | 65c | 30.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 71cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011e…380cbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbef6…efdebacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c47…8171backed No | 68c | 29.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de1…5301backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 85.5%59 W · 10 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ba…df9bbacked No | 71c | 28.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7b…e799backed No | 72c | 26.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 35 | 77.1%27 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1c…9626backed No | 69c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 42c | 25.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb20e…58cebacked No | 70c | 25.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 72cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 76c | 24.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2f…0a46backed No | 72c | 23.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 69cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…c6fcbacked No | 69c | 22.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcf…503fbacked No | 69c | 22.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbce0…f095backed No | 72c | 20.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 89.3%25 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 74cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58de…83afbacked No | 67c | 20.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…fa96backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 75cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c36…08f5backed No | 77c | 19.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8abc…9e55backed No | 62c | 19.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98c4…5d90backed No | 69c | 18.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe89…74ccbacked No | 65c | 18.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…695fbacked No | 67c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 57 | 73.7%42 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7723…c6d8backed No | 71c | 17.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…4f99backed No | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe124…f4babacked No | 73c | 15.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 68c | 14.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcac5…ae8abacked No | 73c | 14.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C or higher on March 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.