Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6d0c0804cb9c55ced848f450dc44f32914cf2adafc7ac6a8b32f268427b547c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,379 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc09…467fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,152$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.73 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 2c | 907.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 530.46$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.84 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 480.98$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed Yes | 25c | 421.48$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.62 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 31c | 407$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.83 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 27c | 388.44$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.04 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 71c | 338.85$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.3 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 30c | 329.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.47 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 72c | 247.15$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.02 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 13c | 247.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 234.21$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.47 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x542f…916abacked No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 31c | 194.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 181$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.13 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 24c | 168.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 32c | 160.05$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed Yes | 64c | 156.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.49 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 149.25$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.1 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 77c | 131.53$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 124.99$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 66c | 116.41$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…29c9backed No | 75c | 115.24$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 30c | 110$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 34c | 109.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 58c | 84.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 73c | 72.09$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…09a5backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 41c | 67.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 75c | 67.57$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 22c | 67.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 66c | 63.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 33c | 60.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 59c | 58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe54f…977cbacked Yes | 31c | 56.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 26c | 55.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 75c | 55.51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 29c | 55.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 53.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes | 30c | 50.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x022f…e73abacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +86%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…4390backed Yes | 24c | 49.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 30c | 47.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6af…fc2fbacked No | 75c | 40.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0da…2342backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc293…c389backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 38 | 86.8%33 W · 5 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 70cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 70c | 35.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4c…444cbacked No | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6de1…5301backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 69 | 85.5%59 W · 10 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 22.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbce0…f095backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 28 | 89.3%25 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 74cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 76c | 19.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf1…c28cbacked No | 77c | 18.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 76c | 18.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…4f99backed No | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No | 76c | 17.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 60c | 17.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 78c | 14.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C or higher on March 18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.