Mls · resolved market
Will New York City FC vs. Chicago Fire FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22dfe0101c7781736f445ee1fe21ca8e4c52b8a2f263db37c05654766f797855
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,237
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,849
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,237 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 75c | 4,744$3,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,191.58 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 8c | 4,032$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.55 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 10c | 4,004$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.35 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 25c | 3,627$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.59 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 23c | 2,517$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.33 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 23c | 2,338$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.49 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 75c | 2,009$1,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.15 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked No | 75c | 1,663$1,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.11 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc66a…ed6abacked No | 78c | 1,266$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.03 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 22c | 935$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.06 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 25c | 830.19$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.55 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 22c | 675$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 146 | 52.1%76 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 22c | 431.91$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.55 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bad…4e22backed Yes | 22c | 331.59$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Yes | 25c | 249.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…f368backed Yes | 20c | 244.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Yes | 22c | 203$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…c701backed Yes | 25c | 183.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed No | 79c | 147.93$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 15c | 139.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 121.36$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Yes | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 143 | 49%70 W · 73 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Yes | 15c | 116.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c33…ddd4backed Yes | 18c | 102.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Yes | 11c | 95.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 21c | 89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…0b6ebacked Yes | 26c | 88.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 74c | 87$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 75c | 75.86$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 132 | 59.1%78 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 77c | 57.87$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Yes | 25c | 52.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 106 | 28.3%30 W · 76 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Yes | 25c | 47.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4db…e401backed Yes | 23c | 43.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.26per pick | 50cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed No | 74c | 41.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…f1d3backed No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 74c | 26.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 75c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 24.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…02ccbacked No | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked No | 77c | 22.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 79c | 18.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will New York City FC vs. Chicago Fire FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-07-25?No won
- Will New York City FC win on 2026-07-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.