Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22f49872cac98b6dece47640d0fb1a368135325d38c812c44bdc5c4bd2a25b80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,474
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,430
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,474 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 20c | 395.19$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 18c | 364.52$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.75 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 69c | 361.52$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.75 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 335.71$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.45 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 33c | 264.64$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.4 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 67c | 257.96$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 68c | 236.85$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.26 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 190.18$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.79 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 35c | 156.96$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.7 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 66c | 155.97$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.95 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 25c | 134.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 34c | 129.41$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.12 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 113$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.35 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 34c | 112.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 110.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.59 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 77c | 108.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.28 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 11c | 105.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 103.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.89 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 28c | 84.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.44 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 27c | 75.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.33 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 74c | 70.89$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ee…d731backed Yes | 33c | 67.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 32c | 66.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.7 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 46c | 66.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd27c…d996backed Yes | 33c | 66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 71c | 64.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 25c | 62.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.24 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 23c | 62.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.41 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 34c | 58.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49e2…994dbacked No | 67c | 57.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 26c | 55.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 75c | 53.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 53c | 53.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 20c | 52.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 49c | 52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34be…7c96backed No | 67c | 51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 30c | 50.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 47.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 35c | 45.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…b7afbacked No | 66c | 45.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 41.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 64c | 38.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 37.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 48c | 36.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 36.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 37c | 33.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d26…2bb9backed Yes | 80c | 33.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 75cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 33c | 33.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed No | 72c | 31.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93cf…517cbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 34c | 29.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 53c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 68c | 28.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aec…6e19backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed No | 68c | 24.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 116 | 70.7%82 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 66c | 21.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…008abacked No | 66c | 19.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 58c | 17.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 70c | 15.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.