Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc243415ded3b3aa02f03ff59c2db805327a35e6a1a9acfcf04cf41e1522e899
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,072
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes | 51c | 449.36$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.75 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 29c | 289.36$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 200.56$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 190$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 9c | 182.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 19c | 176$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 8c | 175.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89da…b5f2backed Yes | 6c | 171.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 15c | 155.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 74c | 154.03$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 75c | 148.44$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 73c | 127.81$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked No | 75c | 118.89$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 79c | 116.22$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 27c | 112.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9598…3be8backed Yes | 13c | 112.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 17c | 104.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 50c | 97.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 16c | 92.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 25c | 80.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 43c | 78.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 54c | 77.07$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb64a…0c47backed No | 66c | 75.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 73c | 65.72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1027…966cbacked Yes | 42c | 59.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…1b7cbacked No | 55c | 58.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 55.12$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 40c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 53c | 37.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 52c | 35.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 59c | 33.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 68c | 31.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes | 46c | 31.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 79c | 30.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 38c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 49c | 29.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 28.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 72c | 27.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 43c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa921…f0eabacked No | 57c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 93 | 62.4%58 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…99b9backed No | 52c | 26.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 70c | 26.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94c0…a805backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…76c2backed No | 65c | 24.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on May 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.