MLB · resolved market
Will Cade Horton win the National League Rookie of the Year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22fc4620e7cccf99a3dc15710e6f2ab7273400d011c2bf5c6901ef6e08919317
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 4,552$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec6…cd1fbacked Yes | 33c | 2,006$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 76c | 1,068$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.15 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed1…402fbacked Yes | 3c | 366.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc6…5f4ebacked Yes | 45c | 266.69$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…f40abacked Yes | 43c | 180$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed No | 63c | 147$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 32cpaid | +293.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 63c | 132$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 20c | 114.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x686a…966bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 31c | 82.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 57c | 73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ae…2a5fbacked Yes | 22c | 48.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 50c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 56c | 30.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cade Horton win the National League Rookie of the Year?this page
- Will Andrew Painter win the National League Rookie of the Year?No won
- Will Augustin Ramirez win the National League Rookie of the Year?No won
- Will Bubba Chandler win the National League Rookie of the Year?No won
- Will Caleb Durbin win the National League Rookie of the Year?No won
- Will Drake Baldwin win the National League Rookie of the Year?Yes won
- Will Dylan Crews win the National League Rookie of the Year?No won
- Will Eric Wagaman win the National League Rookie of the Year?No won
- Will Jacob Misiorowski win the National League Rookie of the Year?No won
- Will Jordan Lawlar win the National League Rookie of the Year?No won
- Will Luisangel Acuna win the National League Rookie of the Year?No won
- Will Matt Shaw win the National League Rookie of the Year?No won
- Will Roki Sasaki win the National League Rookie of the Year?No won
- Will Thomas Saggese win the National League Rookie of the Year?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.