MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22ffe37ee84eb45b40c7366e6019e9204d65f7fb8891895ad131dc4b36ff2568
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,259
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,259 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 53c | 9,104$4,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,859.49 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 51c | 5,320$2,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,691.78 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Francisco Giants | 45c | 4,696$2,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,582.69 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked San Francisco Giants | 46c | 2,304$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,246.97 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…97d4backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 1,989$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.39 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed San Francisco Giants | 45c | 1,042$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.91 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed San Francisco Giants | 45c | 937.49$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.62 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 46c | 934.04$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.66 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked San Francisco Giants | 54c | 933.4$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.37 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed San Francisco Giants | 45c | 924.42$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.43 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…fe05backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 50c | 892$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked San Francisco Giants | 47c | 659.79$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.79 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed San Francisco Giants | 45c | 656.2$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.91 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 583.2$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.61 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 46c | 548.54$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.04 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked San Francisco Giants | 45c | 461$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.55 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed San Francisco Giants | 45c | 437.64$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.7 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants | 50c | 398.05$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.12 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked San Francisco Giants | 52c | 318.51$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.54 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants | 52c | 253.56$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.7 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked San Francisco Giants | 45c | 234.8$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.14 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed San Francisco Giants | 45c | 231.98$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.59 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd10…f782backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 165.45$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.45 | 134 | 47.8%64 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 161.24$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 49c | 143$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.37 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 24c | 120.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked San Francisco Giants | 45c | 103.42$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.88 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 36c | 103.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed San Francisco Giants | 45c | 87.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 75.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed San Francisco Giants | 66c | 54.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked San Francisco Giants | 66c | 39.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 52c | 36.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed San Francisco Giants | 51c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…e155backed San Francisco Giants | 45c | 32.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked San Francisco Giants | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93dd…2f33backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles DodgersSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.