MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b5ea60fa1bb7f25cb3db06feb0b3db132966ae8b3c9ac77d62f75a17aed2fcb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa1e4…4f8abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 32c | 13,821$4,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,388 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 67c | 11,272$7,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,682.15 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d97…f263backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 50c | 10,203$5,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,094.93 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Francisco Giants | 58c | 6,594$3,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,752.73 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants | 50c | 5,716$2,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,858.24 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants | 75c | 1,417$1,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.35 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x503a…8322backed San Francisco Giants | 43c | 1,000$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.01 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 15c | 817.22$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.92 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 32c | 745.5$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.51 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 56c | 653$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.72 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed San Francisco Giants | 71c | 421.55$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.55 | 250 | 66.4%166 W · 84 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked San Francisco Giants | 61c | 409.97$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.62 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…3e23backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 28c | 240$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked San Francisco Giants | 72c | 221$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed San Francisco Giants | 44c | 215.71$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.8 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 46c | 159.59$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.73 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 27c | 118$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 100.24$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 38c | 87.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked San Francisco Giants | 68c | 84$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 28c | 79.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccc4…77cabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 20c | 71.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 35c | 67.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…7891backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 67.07$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked San Francisco Giants | 59c | 62.29$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 208 | 52.9%110 W · 98 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 27c | 49.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 31c | 46.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 33c | 45.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed San Francisco Giants | 44c | 45.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 44.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed San Francisco Giants | 71c | 42.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 39c | 41.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 56c | 37.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 39c | 36.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 35.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 229 | 48%110 W · 119 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 35c | 33.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b92…2241backed San Francisco Giants | 69c | 25.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93dd…2f33backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…e6d8backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 22.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 51c | 22.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 192 | 57.8%111 W · 81 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9244…643cbacked San Francisco Giants | 65c | 19.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles DodgersSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.