Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2304f99045ca3cfcf5c276f116b81f393f6240a1dd6cb556d61d2a5046cb9cc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Under | 53c | 5,542$2,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,616.89 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x363c…9b0ebacked Over | 43c | 3,369$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,449.92 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ede…8d79backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8e…0c69backed Over | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5da5…e620backed Over | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf3…969cbacked Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc69b…2076backed Under | 63c | 904.16$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.21 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 54c | 872.39$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.3 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 51c | 712.47$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.31 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Over | 47c | 585.14$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.9 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5537…f9c8backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 50c | 426.31$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.98 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 395.43$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.55 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd86d…ecf8backed Under | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…42e4backed Over | 51c | 237.24$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Over | 40c | 199.75$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.9 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Over | 51c | 196.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc11f…2429backed Under | 64c | 194.55$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.95 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6401…f240backed Over | 36c | 153.76$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Under | 62c | 105.37$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 40c | 103$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Over | 50c | 100.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 412 | 48.8%201 W · 211 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 140 | 58.6%82 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaadf…7cc1backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 267 | 41.9%112 W · 155 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…39fcbacked Over | 51c | 98.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3743…7bc1backed Over | 52c | 96.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 49c | 87.13$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c81…e3a4backed Under | 61c | 73.77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35c8…ce5cbacked Over | 39c | 73.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…51f3backed Over | 43c | 62.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…41f5backed Under | 79c | 59.41$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 48c | 47.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 268 | 46.6%125 W · 143 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd786…59b8backed Over | 28c | 45.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Over | 34c | 44.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 50c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…226ebacked Under | 55c | 41.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 213 | 28.2%60 W · 153 L | -16.0wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bc…4347backed Over | 48c | 41.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +6.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6db…2f0dbacked Over | 47c | 41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +34%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 26c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…ca8bbacked Under | 53c | 41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c4…9defbacked Over | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb163…368dbacked Over | 51c | 39.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 48c | 39.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…b241backed Over | 51c | 38.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Under | 50c | 35.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 48c | 28.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…24abbacked Over | 62c | 24.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…2561backed Over | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 316 | 59.8%189 W · 127 L | +18.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdd…e70ebacked Under | 49c | 22.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffb1…f54ebacked Under | 51c | 21.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd0…fb3dbacked Under | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International PlayoffsTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Team Spirit - Game 1 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Team Spirit - Game 2 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs BoomBoys (+1.5)Team Spirit won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.