CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Rare Atom vs Morningstar (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia-Pacific Cup 2 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2314cd2d33f271ad674971ae8456d5f8a12462f33c44620bc68a34b6d9d31863
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Morningstarof Rare Atom, Morningstar
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,880
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,880 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Rare Atom | 1c | 1,937$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…520abacked Rare Atom | 60c | 1,057$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.47 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Rare Atom | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 215 | 0.9%2 W · 213 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Morningstar | 32c | 609.79$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.69 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Morningstar | 58c | 302.7$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.95 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Rare Atom | 33c | 270.83$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.25 | 156 | 41%64 W · 92 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f95…6972backed Rare Atom | 44c | 263.57$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.79 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -44%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Morningstar | 56c | 255.43$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.85 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed Morningstar | 31c | 237.78$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.07 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34f6…eab4backed Rare Atom | 47c | 212.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Rare Atom | 51c | 192.92$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 368 | 45.9%169 W · 199 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba0…24d5backed Morningstar | 45c | 177.18$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.68 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +38%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0e…021ebacked Rare Atom | 57c | 173.3$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.28 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -32%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Rare Atom | 25c | 158.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 452 | 24.3%110 W · 342 L | -52.4wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed Rare Atom | 26c | 140.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 2,522 | 43%1,085 W · 1,437 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc10a…46b5backed Morningstar | 76c | 140$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 81 | 66.7%54 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2f…a15fbacked Rare Atom | 41c | 132$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 190 | 55.8%106 W · 84 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce72…cbefbacked Morningstar | 77c | 129.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…534ebacked Morningstar | 59c | 123.83$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc110…f3eabacked Rare Atom | 41c | 121.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89b…f512backed Rare Atom | 50c | 115$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8548…e4c1backed Morningstar | 48c | 114.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.84 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Rare Atom | 64c | 101.56$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1,710 | 52.3%895 W · 815 L | -73.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Rare Atom | 21c | 94.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 579 | 35.1%203 W · 376 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa073…a3babacked Morningstar | 57c | 86.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.03 | 1,117 | 68.6%766 W · 351 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a8…2282backed Morningstar | 63c | 80.95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00d…4251backed Morningstar | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa423…d3dfbacked Rare Atom | 17c | 78.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea49…434fbacked Rare Atom | 44c | 61.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 150 | 57.3%86 W · 64 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fe…dd6dbacked Rare Atom | 56c | 59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +157%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Rare Atom | 33c | 58.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 215 | 28.8%62 W · 153 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57eb…beeabacked Rare Atom | 62c | 58.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…51dbbacked Rare Atom | 54c | 51.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 401 | 48.4%194 W · 207 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Rare Atom | 31c | 50.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 373 | 39.7%148 W · 225 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Rare Atom | 24c | 48.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf2…1e5bbacked Rare Atom | 45c | 45.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Rare Atom | 43c | 40.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 527 | 55.8%294 W · 233 L | +23.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…54ddbacked Rare Atom | 51c | 39.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 387 | 53.2%206 W · 181 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81fc…f616backed Morningstar | 59c | 39.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…5455backed Rare Atom | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Morningstar | 48c | 32.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 459 | 56.9%261 W · 198 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Rare Atom | 38c | 30.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1,109 | 50.5%560 W · 549 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2315…39b1backed Rare Atom | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79e0…b651backed Rare Atom | 51c | 24.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8821…32c6backed Rare Atom | 60c | 20.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f03…2ddebacked Rare Atom | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc93b…9e73backed Rare Atom | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.