Us Midterms · resolved market
Will any candidate win the Texas Republican Senate Primary outright?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23386629b6b0a5d2f8df8424b71162c73120efc01e0cd0984d2c03d254b22d72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,408 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 11c | 7,451$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.93 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 13c | 5,021$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.74 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 13c | 2,144$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.32 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked Yes | 10c | 2,000$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.16 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 17c | 1,587$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.19 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62fb…7151backed Yes | 3c | 1,504$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…04f5backed Yes | 1c | 1,387$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 16c | 1,214$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.72 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b5…fa78backed No | 78c | 990$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 13c | 875.3$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 11c | 400$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 5c | 383.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 337.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 15c | 282.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 18c | 264.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc1…0c67backed Yes | 24c | 253.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…dc6dbacked Yes | 13c | 240$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 6c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f51…d389backed Yes | 14c | 77.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 16c | 75.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed No | 77c | 63.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f16…1e38backed No | 73c | 49.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 79c | 13.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.