Movies · resolved market
Will Stranger Things: Season 5 be #1 for 3 straight weeks?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2351f36862d09b0bddf35228c6efc39325868ce695f65d21ad6ecee12d6116de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,674
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,674 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 11c | 1,708$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.99 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…449dbacked Yes | 25c | 1,477$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.54 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,362$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5819…087fbacked No | 78c | 1,307$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.14 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde5e…3a94backed Yes | 31c | 569.99$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.19 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecd3…4285backed Yes | 50c | 522.16$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 78c | 329.11$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.99 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 58c | 317.03$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.16 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 59c | 243.9$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x519a…1551backed No | 65c | 233.88$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.43 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd042…215fbacked No | 70c | 222.01$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.34 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 65cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 55c | 156.41$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.62 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf816…a7b1backed Yes | 39c | 119.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 49c | 119.49$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 137 | 40.1%55 W · 82 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…b98ebacked Yes | 32c | 94.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +115.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 30c | 92.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5497…8ac9backed No | 56c | 88.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…7600backed Yes | 12c | 88.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaefb…cecebacked No | 71c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 66c | 75.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +3.9wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5174…0c80backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59c2…de58backed No | 53c | 75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked Yes | 38c | 53.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4de…7838backed No | 51c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe110…52c2backed Yes | 47c | 42.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e80…c7ecbacked Yes | 33c | 39.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…9560backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc115…425bbacked Yes | 42c | 33.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…1380backed Yes | 44c | 31.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8266…c472backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +31%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3454…83e1backed Yes | 44c | 29.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Stranger Things: Season 5 be #1 for 3 straight weeks?this page
- Will Stranger Things: Season 5 be #1 for 0 straight weeks?No won
- Will Stranger Things: Season 5 be #1 for 1 straight weeks?No won
- Will Stranger Things: Season 5 be #1 for 2 straight weeks?Yes won
- Will Stranger Things: Season 5 be #1 for 4 straight weeks?No won
- Will Stranger Things: Season 5 be #1 for 5 straight weeks?No won
- Will Stranger Things: Season 5 be #1 for 6 straight weeks?No won
- Will Stranger Things: Season 5 be #1 for 7 straight weeks?No won
- Will Stranger Things: Season 5 be #1 for 8 straight weeks?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.