Movies · resolved market
Will Stranger Things: Season 5 be #1 for 2 straight weeks?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f1243f417bec0de4b924f4f4365e6b331e4b8adcc07f9702eeed72e6f26dfcd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,716
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5819…087fbacked No | 57c | 2,673$1,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,515.81 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 35c | 1,239$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.1 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x110f…8f39backed Yes | 58c | 1,180$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.87 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +8.7wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ca…0f21backed No | 70c | 1,028$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.01 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde5e…3a94backed Yes | 16c | 817.72$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.59 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…449dbacked Yes | 16c | 686.54$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.54 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 36c | 681$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.18 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed Yes | 80c | 567.03$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.03 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 53 | 7.5%4 W · 49 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…94fbbacked Yes | 31c | 324.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +224.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…0268backed No | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…8652backed Yes | 50c | 300$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…b98ebacked Yes | 12c | 258.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +115.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…1380backed No | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5497…8ac9backed No | 64c | 189.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…5cc4backed No | 20c | 181.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 22c | 160$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82d…1837backed No | 13c | 140$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd042…215fbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 65cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…4bd2backed Yes | 72c | 44.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8266…c472backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +31%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaefb…cecebacked No | 64c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…a0d7backed Yes | 61c | 33.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 57c | 21.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6b…a116backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Stranger Things: Season 5 be #1 for 2 straight weeks?this page
- Will Stranger Things: Season 5 be #1 for 0 straight weeks?No won
- Will Stranger Things: Season 5 be #1 for 1 straight weeks?No won
- Will Stranger Things: Season 5 be #1 for 3 straight weeks?No won
- Will Stranger Things: Season 5 be #1 for 4 straight weeks?No won
- Will Stranger Things: Season 5 be #1 for 5 straight weeks?No won
- Will Stranger Things: Season 5 be #1 for 6 straight weeks?No won
- Will Stranger Things: Season 5 be #1 for 7 straight weeks?No won
- Will Stranger Things: Season 5 be #1 for 8 straight weeks?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.