Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x236698333080b1ec15b8e0116434c4a208f5b26d6eee7119946cb83785e0f8d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,218
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee24…bd15backed Yes | 29c | 510.2$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.1 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 21c | 362.75$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.59 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 22c | 260.74$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 72c | 236.44$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.35 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 25c | 211.41$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.89 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x524a…f168backed Yes | 24c | 207.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 25c | 205.63$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 200.16$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.16 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 24c | 192.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 79c | 175.55$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 30c | 166.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 70c | 160.59$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 156.43$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed Yes | 23c | 150.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ed…e634backed Yes | 33c | 149.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 133.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 75c | 121.33$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 49c | 98.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65d2…262cbacked Yes | 26c | 98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 24c | 84.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 61c | 82.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 73c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 17c | 67.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 69c | 65.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 59.49$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 52c | 57.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 53.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 77c | 50.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 70c | 50.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 71c | 48.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed Yes | 26c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 77c | 42.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 58c | 41.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 38.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 35.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 29.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f33…da59backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 80c | 27.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 78c | 26.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 73c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 73c | 25.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 59c | 23.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 75c | 20.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 75c | 19.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 76c | 18.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 80c | 17.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 79c | 16.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 78c | 15.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.