Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9abc74973998194008feb80c40fca8ea21bed8e6878f8801395a3aeee6295c14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,039
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 50c | 1,267$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.43 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 61c | 923.82$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.5 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 62c | 786.24$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.38 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 43c | 657.12$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.53 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 54c | 585.42$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.56 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee24…bd15backed Yes | 63c | 550.68$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.15 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 64c | 374.65$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.39 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes | 49c | 354.59$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.47 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 28c | 314.08$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.26 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…8cdebacked No | 14c | 248.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 27c | 246.42$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.58 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 61c | 230.98$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.49 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90ff…4fe2backed No | 46c | 213.37$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.92 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 45c | 200.29$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.92 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 49c | 175.63$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 39c | 173.02$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.76 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 55c | 165.79$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.44 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 44c | 149.8$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.31 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 65c | 135.31$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 34c | 131.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 44c | 124.33$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.24 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 44c | 117.3$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 39c | 102$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed No | 57c | 95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.55 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 57c | 91.82$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 38c | 90.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 31c | 90$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed Yes | 38c | 78.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.85 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 49c | 77.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 70.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 39c | 68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4e…f700backed No | 46c | 64.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 22c | 63.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 23c | 63.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 32c | 63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 69c | 62.77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 57.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…922ebacked Yes | 54c | 55.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 43c | 55.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 62c | 54.6$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 24c | 53.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 47c | 52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 40c | 50.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 42c | 47.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 35c | 47.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked No | 34c | 44.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 47c | 43.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 56c | 43.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…c6c8backed No | 64c | 42.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 33c | 42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 63c | 39.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 43c | 38.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 50c | 38.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 50c | 38.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 66c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2304…24bfbacked Yes | 43c | 36.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6136…64f8backed Yes | 43c | 35.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c8…d97cbacked No | 45c | 33.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -65%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 54c | 32.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed Yes | 36c | 32.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…c2eabacked No | 51c | 31.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 60c | 29.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes | 63c | 28.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes | 66c | 22.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 66c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 61c | 16.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 67c | 16.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ca…f531backed Yes | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.