TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs OG - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
OGof BetBoom Team, OG
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$642,580
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$752,185

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $642,580 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 384 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed BetBoom Team70c81,289$56,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56,530.311,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3413…8ff2backed OG32c30,000$9,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,399.9647646.4%221 W · 255 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d16…212ebacked OG31c24,645$7,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,035.558360.2%50 W · 33 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x66b1…6b9dbacked OG51c21,076$10,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,277.689339.8%37 W · 56 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe59f…0d08backed OG59c17,608$10,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,223.9421155.5%117 W · 94 L+17.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9166…b479backed BetBoom Team69c15,801$10,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,886.4412348%59 W · 64 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed BetBoom Team71c14,100$10,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,010.9415951.6%82 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73bc…46cebacked OG29c10,800$3,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,667.9810540%42 W · 63 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed BetBoom Team65c10,644$6,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,955.4251049%250 W · 260 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1de…21f5backed OG31c10,000$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,899.9530452.3%159 W · 145 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4aec…4ce9backed BetBoom Team79c9,673$7,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,667.1730667.3%206 W · 100 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed OG31c9,604$2,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,626.769736.1%35 W · 62 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x898b…6c00backed OG48c9,225$4,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,796.994850%24 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1305…46d2backed BetBoom Team66c8,410$5,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,519.592955.2%16 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-12.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x012b…7c42backed BetBoom Team71c8,040$5,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,693.921330.8%4 W · 9 L-3.4wins-0.26per pick57cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked BetBoom Team56c8,035$4,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,487.3589741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked OG31c7,597$2,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,241.771,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked BetBoom Team54c7,570$4,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,104.351,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed OG27c7,059$1,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,162.1477941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked OG42c6,635$2,818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,817.5325446.1%117 W · 137 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3452…1ba0backed BetBoom Team12c6,620$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.7618351.9%95 W · 88 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked OG39c6,089$2,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,722.1150850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed OG30c5,833$1,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,098.8571143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed BetBoom Team66c5,500$3,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,634.9833453%177 W · 157 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked BetBoom Team69c5,243$3,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,596.950347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ebe…5e6fbacked OG32c5,237$1,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,558.2325752.1%134 W · 123 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked BetBoom Team2c5,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014515.2%22 W · 123 L-16.5wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed BetBoom Team64c4,500$2,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,879.9921146.9%99 W · 112 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked OG29c4,316$1,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,062.2926843.7%117 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked OG29c4,310$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,060.3416641%68 W · 98 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x47e8…efdcbacked OG69c4,064$2,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,250.1419456.2%109 W · 85 L+13.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e01…b0b5backed OG41c4,032$1,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,389.1420642.7%88 W · 118 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked BetBoom Team78c4,000$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,119.9841242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x818b…c5ebbacked BetBoom Team76c3,938$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0009658.3%56 W · 40 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed OG30c3,890$1,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,733.2656955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a01…c89ebacked OG57c3,863$2,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,663.8128251.8%146 W · 136 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba43…c6c0backed BetBoom Team69c3,592$2,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,478.455149%25 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked BetBoom Team43c3,575$1,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,533.9877458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed OG41c3,467$1,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,051.542,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad42…6031backed OG44c3,413$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,913.468648.8%42 W · 44 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df4…153cbacked BetBoom Team70c3,361$2,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,343.725238.5%20 W · 32 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed OG28c3,323$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,397.9328044.3%124 W · 156 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf897…8453backed OG29c3,321$963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,357.598146.9%38 W · 43 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3de…6fe8backed OG80c3,233$2,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.6210075%75 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x633e…d305backed OG34c3,228$1,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,136.1410453.8%56 W · 48 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x57b4…b46bbacked BetBoom Team69c3,196$2,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,205.1124246.7%113 W · 129 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked BetBoom Team63c3,176$1,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,990.8554058.9%318 W · 222 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed BetBoom Team67c3,118$2,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,079.0796557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked BetBoom Team54c3,106$1,671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,671.491,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67ed…085abacked BetBoom Team72c3,094$2,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,225.384544.4%20 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked OG19c3,085$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,501.7739343.3%170 W · 223 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69b1…2687backed OG29c3,002$881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,121.41650%8 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+30.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc646…e394backed OG33c3,000$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,020.837655.1%207 W · 169 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a77…e59dbacked OG40c2,996$1,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,792.9422031.8%70 W · 150 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1568…2a89backed OG22c2,727$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,127.279122%20 W · 71 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed BetBoom Team68c2,651$1,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,803.0160349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x51be…12c2backed OG25c2,586$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,951.7819251%98 W · 94 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a56…10f5backed BetBoom Team43c2,475$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,052.7518950.8%96 W · 93 L+10.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x948a…d1a4backed BetBoom Team54c2,433$1,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,312.924255%133 W · 109 L+14.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed OG25c2,355$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,770.4672035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed OG47c2,332$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,241.7348057.1%274 W · 206 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cfc…4f30backed OG23c2,190$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,675.837745.4%171 W · 206 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed OG39c2,083$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,273.4234442.2%145 W · 199 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed BetBoom Team64c2,041$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300.1746664.2%299 W · 167 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed OG30c2,031$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,429.8165441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed OG25c2,028$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,516.8588539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2929…1dd0backed OG42c2,020$847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,173.0716553.3%88 W · 77 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9aff…b136backed BetBoom Team35c2,000$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.9932445.1%146 W · 178 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…d03fbacked BetBoom Team76c1,743$1,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,324.5317965.4%117 W · 62 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd953…a9c0backed BetBoom Team61c1,727$1,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,057.968958.4%52 W · 37 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf072…d897backed OG29c1,716$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,214.8512246.7%57 W · 65 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffc…3dd9backed OG31c1,700$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,172.991741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+28.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed BetBoom Team56c1,700$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953.9857449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked OG36c1,654$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,058.7635850.6%181 W · 177 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed BetBoom Team68c1,607$1,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,086.41,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c01…e7d0backed BetBoom Team70c1,607$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,124.9512350.4%62 W · 61 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bb7…7028backed OG31c1,576$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,093.716839.7%27 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08cf…22b9backed BetBoom Team70c1,562$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,092.553758.8%316 W · 221 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x958c…a328backed OG30c1,534$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,073.7228347%133 W · 150 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe50…b05cbacked BetBoom Team80c1,526$1,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,216.321266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96a8…6107backed OG29c1,508$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,071.557439.2%29 W · 45 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a85…ff94backed BetBoom Team70c1,501$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.829352.9%155 W · 138 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed BetBoom Team73c1,500$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,089.9950769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x94cb…64e3backed OG29c1,500$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,064.9918830.9%58 W · 130 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3e5…519dbacked BetBoom Team79c1,418$1,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120.6912764.6%82 W · 45 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked OG32c1,414$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961.5117047.1%80 W · 90 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x568d…87d0backed OG36c1,343$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.4910537.1%39 W · 66 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-24%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed OG36c1,339$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$860.745352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebb9…1d15backed OG30c1,300$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$910.179535.8%34 W · 61 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b57…de6bbacked OG35c1,300$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$848.9919338.9%75 W · 118 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb69…cfd1backed OG43c1,247$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.8530356.4%171 W · 132 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed OG22c1,077$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$840.7443738.4%168 W · 269 L-1.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked BetBoom Team65c1,069$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70055251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23cb…80d0backed OG28c1,054$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.3722853.1%121 W · 107 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked OG47c1,041$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.7292056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked BetBoom Team69c1,024$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.8532548.9%159 W · 166 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed OG49c1,005$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.6431547.6%150 W · 165 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed OG32c1,000$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68036343.3%157 W · 206 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x177e…c244backed OG35c999.99$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.9929546.1%136 W · 159 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe548…a9febacked BetBoom Team69c999.98$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.997236.1%26 W · 46 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-19.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.