Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs OG (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cedec4f6d670ee73dd8d8b0df9e4ad0ec9b3137be62ad29decc7627d0e0bd05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- OGof BetBoom Team, OG
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,931
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,931 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7029…1136backed BetBoom Team | 45c | 730.17$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.58 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed OG | 55c | 700$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked BetBoom Team | 45c | 263$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.65 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94cb…64e3backed BetBoom Team | 43c | 260.8$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.15 | 188 | 30.9%58 W · 130 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked OG | 72c | 203.1$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.54 | 273 | 45.8%125 W · 148 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed OG | 54c | 173.78$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.94 | 168 | 41.1%69 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3e…7befbacked OG | 57c | 170.19$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.18 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed BetBoom Team | 51c | 148.25$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.87 | 427 | 67%286 W · 141 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked BetBoom Team | 64c | 144.37$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.84 | 546 | 59.7%326 W · 220 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3296…c186backed OG | 59c | 129.84$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x591d…f4dfbacked BetBoom Team | 47c | 128.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 98 | 42.9%42 W · 56 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9147…baccbacked BetBoom Team | 47c | 101.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked OG | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 907 | 56.1%509 W · 398 L | +16.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed BetBoom Team | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed OG | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 280 | 44.3%124 W · 156 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312c…0f42backed BetBoom Team | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 372 | 52.7%196 W · 176 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5537…f9c8backed OG | 55c | 99.96$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe548…a9febacked OG | 54c | 97.78$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed OG | 41c | 87.91$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 49 | 10.2%5 W · 44 L | -6.9wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x23d3…fc0ebacked OG | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 125 | 44%55 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed OG | 36c | 78.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.19 | 435 | 60.5%263 W · 172 L | +43.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed OG | 65c | 77.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 594 | 56.7%337 W · 257 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked BetBoom Team | 35c | 74.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b5…df9bbacked BetBoom Team | 46c | 73.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed BetBoom Team | 55c | 68.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 508 | 55.5%282 W · 226 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…41f5backed OG | 27c | 60.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.58 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed OG | 53c | 60.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 524 | 50.8%266 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…559ebacked BetBoom Team | 65c | 46.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 180 | 55.6%100 W · 80 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed OG | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c65…2e0dbacked OG | 57c | 44.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb64c…393dbacked OG | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 293 | 50.2%147 W · 146 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…355abacked BetBoom Team | 45c | 43.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed BetBoom Team | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 969 | 42.8%415 W · 554 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf1…d7febacked BetBoom Team | 40c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed BetBoom Team | 45c | 32.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked OG | 55c | 31.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 1,151 | 47.8%550 W · 601 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed OG | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 108 | 53.7%58 W · 50 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd799…326cbacked BetBoom Team | 43c | 27.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked OG | 53c | 26.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d8…ad87backed OG | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed BetBoom Team | 62c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ab…8fc0backed BetBoom Team | 73c | 13.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs OG (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs OG (BO3) - 1win Essence PlayoffsBetBoom Team won
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs OG - Game 1 WinnerBetBoom Team won
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs OG - Game 2 WinnerOG won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.