College Football · resolved market
Spread: Northwestern (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x238f1e55617bd3788e714bddb40593866e8b41517580e1acc0f07637b9767b25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Northwesternof Northwestern, Central Michigan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $121,125
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,125 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Central Michigan | 50c | 100,000$50,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,000 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Northwestern | 50c | 91,453$45,727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,726.64 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Northwestern | 50c | 14,058$6,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,077.65 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…0171backed Central Michigan | 51c | 5,861$2,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,989 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…58bfbacked Central Michigan | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Northwestern | 49c | 4,471$2,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,280.26 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Central Michigan | 50c | 3,042$1,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,521.03 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Northwestern | 52c | 2,100$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…f821backed Northwestern | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Northwestern | 49c | 1,102$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.77 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Northwestern | 71c | 828.95$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.45 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…41f6backed Central Michigan | 49c | 609.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…bdddbacked Central Michigan | 51c | 559.8$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Northwestern | 50c | 378$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…b176backed Central Michigan | 50c | 324$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…9b2abacked Central Michigan | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.29per pick | 11cpaid | +300%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…669fbacked Central Michigan | 7c | 228.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.26per pick | 29cpaid | +242.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x273c…7a42backed Central Michigan | 50c | 228.88$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.44 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Northwestern | 49c | 214.55$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.42 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Northwestern | 52c | 208.33$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 109 | 44%48 W · 61 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397d…794fbacked Northwestern | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Northwestern | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0915…d08abacked Central Michigan | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd79c…a0e7backed Central Michigan | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Central Michigan | 51c | 98.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…944cbacked Central Michigan | 51c | 98.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Northwestern | 51c | 83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Central Michigan | 49c | 78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Northwestern | 51c | 52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09f9…a73cbacked Central Michigan | 50c | 30.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9f…c934backed Central Michigan | 51c | 29.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x394d…6d80backed Central Michigan | 51c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ca…36f7backed Central Michigan | 51c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…cb02backed Central Michigan | 51c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…47b2backed Central Michigan | 51c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d7…43b2backed Central Michigan | 51c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ae…7269backed Central Michigan | 51c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8610…fa01backed Central Michigan | 51c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd2…716abacked Central Michigan | 51c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe959…578bbacked Central Michigan | 51c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb1…1129backed Central Michigan | 51c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Northwestern (-12.5)this page
- Central Michigan vs. NorthwesternNorthwestern won
- Central Michigan vs. Northwestern: 1H MoneylineNorthwestern won
- O/U 43.5Under won
- Spread: Northwestern (-10.5)Northwestern won
- Spread: Northwestern (-11.5)Northwestern won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.