MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23cdfad9a898c2932f651c676eb2aa16eb798f9c56ac597d2cb3f55f4cb9d177
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Minnesota Twins, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,760 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Minnesota Twins | 44c | 2,005$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.49 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Boston Red Sox | 56c | 1,718$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.05 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Minnesota Twins | 48c | 1,500$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.52 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Minnesota Twins | 44c | 552.36$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.18 | 143 | 28.7%41 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Boston Red Sox | 53c | 516$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.95 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076b…dbfabacked Boston Red Sox | 56c | 400$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Boston Red Sox | 57c | 399.11$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.79 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Boston Red Sox | 57c | 354.39$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.39 | 507 | 51.7%262 W · 245 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Minnesota Twins | 47c | 342$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.07 | 134 | 42.5%57 W · 77 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Minnesota Twins | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Boston Red Sox | 57c | 265$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.95 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Minnesota Twins | 43c | 247.55$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.17 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Minnesota Twins | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Minnesota Twins | 44c | 200$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 352 | 45.5%160 W · 192 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4c…dc70backed Boston Red Sox | 57c | 200$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Minnesota Twins | 46c | 198.08$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.12 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Minnesota Twins | 48c | 187.5$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -40%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Boston Red Sox | 52c | 159$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.32 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Boston Red Sox | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Boston Red Sox | 55c | 122.9$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.31 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe758…c5afbacked Boston Red Sox | 74c | 115.45$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Boston Red Sox | 55c | 109.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.46 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Minnesota Twins | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Minnesota Twins | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Minnesota Twins | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Boston Red Sox | 56c | 75.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71a…f135backed Boston Red Sox | 57c | 74.37$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Minnesota Twins | 23c | 70.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…29dcbacked Minnesota Twins | 45c | 64.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Minnesota Twins | 48c | 62.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Minnesota Twins | 46c | 60.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Boston Red Sox | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Minnesota Twins | 44c | 59.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…c55fbacked Minnesota Twins | 44c | 56.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Minnesota Twins | 44c | 54.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…1e5ebacked Boston Red Sox | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Minnesota Twins | 25c | 51.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Boston Red Sox | 55c | 50.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…dd4fbacked Minnesota Twins | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8353…01a8backed Boston Red Sox | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Minnesota Twins | 48c | 43.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf638…aa50backed Boston Red Sox | 52c | 42.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…4692backed Boston Red Sox | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 403 | 51.4%207 W · 196 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Boston Red Sox | 57c | 39.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…b39dbacked Boston Red Sox | 71c | 35.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Boston Red Sox | 55c | 34.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc0…8f18backed Minnesota Twins | 47c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Minnesota Twins | 36c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked Boston Red Sox | 52c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Boston Red Sox | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…3773backed Minnesota Twins | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Minnesota Twins | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Boston Red Sox | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Boston Red Sox | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.