AI · resolved market
OpenAI announces search competitor on Monday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23db5a655f6cde10814b65288cf432296dffff8d2641123f49ebde03659d8f28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 7c | 11,710$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed Yes | 2c | 9,492$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 17c | 5,607$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.21 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 1c | 3,517$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…e414backed Yes | 19c | 1,882$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 15c | 1,680$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 12c | 941.05$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5b…e9f0backed Yes | 22c | 725.36$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a0…d7a5backed Yes | 13c | 490.48$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005d…08bdbacked Yes | 14c | 400$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 10c | 360.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcd…c2acbacked Yes | 19c | 355$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed No | 75c | 300$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.86 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe999…6f77backed No | 70c | 295.37$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.61 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x345b…9f2ebacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…7470backed Yes | 16c | 158.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 17c | 144.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b8…da98backed No | 78c | 128.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…dfc8backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 12c | 86.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d1…223abacked No | 21c | 55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…1907backed No | 75c | 36.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.