Mls · resolved market
Nashville SC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23df93a0925d430a86d39e3c679b2e0c25cb2e133e4191eb3246393b7ec1310c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 28c | 3,048$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,198.18 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 71c | 668.53$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.16 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 636.87$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.58 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 71c | 612.67$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.66 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 29c | 559.3$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.7 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 75c | 500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 62c | 463.98$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.72 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 44c | 316.36$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.76 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 62c | 300$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.64 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 59c | 287.94$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.24 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Under | 54c | 220.89$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 61c | 210.62$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.64 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Over | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 62c | 199.99$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.46 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 71c | 127$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.64 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 34c | 112$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.43 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e15…8ea4backed Over | 45c | 111.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.73 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 74c | 110.51$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.75 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0a…50adbacked Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65be…5546backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 60c | 90$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 71c | 81.57$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 35c | 81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.03 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 29c | 80.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.68 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa17e…cfcdbacked Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3c…37e4backed Over | 44c | 80$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 40c | 78.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.52 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 65c | 73.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | -16.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 29c | 70$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.75 | 156 | 76.9%120 W · 36 L | +32.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Under | 73c | 68.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Over | 34c | 65.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd94…6b1ebacked Over | 35c | 65.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 29c | 56.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +12.0wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +83%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Over | 46c | 56.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 71c | 52.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0497…c5e3backed Over | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.36per pick | 52cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Over | 38c | 42.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 48c | 41.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed Under | 72c | 31.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 57cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 76c | 30.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 50c | 30.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 42c | 26.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Under | 54c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 72c | 24.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f51…43debacked Over | 49c | 22.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 72c | 19.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nashville SC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 3.5this page
- Nashville SC vs. D.C. United SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Nashville SC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Nashville SC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Nashville SC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: D.C. United SC (-2.5)Nashville SC won
- Spread: Nashville SC (-1.5)D.C. United SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.