Mls · resolved market
Nashville SC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89d7671d73769497785a8b5806fafda4f4fc3d655a6cf76fb72c24a656c13357
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 50c | 5,351$2,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,652.73 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 51c | 4,275$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,075.29 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 49c | 2,666$1,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305.57 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 49c | 1,735$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.17 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under | 49c | 1,430$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.7 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 59c | 877.54$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.37 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 719.68$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.45 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x684c…93dfbacked Over | 37c | 551.19$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 61c | 550.88$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.23 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 48c | 526.24$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.69 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 49c | 391.05$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.61 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 39c | 390.27$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.18 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 45c | 371.95$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.24 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 364.38$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.49 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 46c | 329.75$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.27 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Under | 50c | 285$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbffb…a60ebacked Under | 16c | 237.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Over | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 44c | 195.01$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.64 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 108 | 53.7%58 W · 50 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 49c | 184.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.95 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 62c | 143.59$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.97 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 32c | 128.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 48c | 120.19$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc72d…fc21backed Under | 49c | 107.55$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 46c | 105$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc117…6ddabacked Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Under | 48c | 98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 49c | 96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 50c | 88.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.17 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 49c | 78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3d…3681backed Over | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 79cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 54c | 62.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 50c | 60.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 51c | 57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +12.0wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +83%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Over | 66c | 42.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 32c | 38.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | -16.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Over | 67c | 31.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 42c | 31.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 59c | 30.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d62…49c5backed Over | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 51c | 27.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9b…7349backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 63c | 24.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 75c | 23.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Over | 61c | 23.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +8.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e17…23dfbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 62c | 19.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 191 | 72.3%138 W · 53 L | +36.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…67b9backed Over | 77c | 15.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebcf…086abacked Over | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nashville SC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 2.5this page
- Nashville SC vs. D.C. United SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Nashville SC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Nashville SC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Nashville SC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: D.C. United SC (-2.5)Nashville SC won
- Spread: Nashville SC (-1.5)D.C. United SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.