Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 32-33°F on March 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x244c91260b27c109d2f905fb37847d22ed7fab8f7f9e29120fe010d71a2bc53c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x037b…9f20backed Yes | 71c | 1,001$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.25 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked Yes | 47c | 575.64$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d9…fc3fbacked No | 22c | 500$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa112…d215backed No | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ee…6e11backed No | 35c | 251.02$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.02 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 69c | 184.08$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.84 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 35c | 181.43$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.58 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8608…7b5cbacked Yes | 71c | 181.03$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.07 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 44c | 156.89$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 147.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 38c | 129.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73f0…3d28backed Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked No | 48c | 96.42$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed Yes | 44c | 65.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…f11dbacked No | 70c | 60.16$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 25c | 56.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 33c | 55.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc3…da8abacked Yes | 55c | 49.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 69c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8af5…75a0backed No | 34c | 43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +341.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d15…4695backed No | 34c | 42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480c…3605backed Yes | 43c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb67…4fd6backed No | 57c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6369…0c67backed No | 57c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cb…522dbacked Yes | 43c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee6…693abacked Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a52…b173backed Yes | 66c | 34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…ae20backed Yes | 43c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa4…a553backed No | 34c | 33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed Yes | 58c | 31.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc10…f83fbacked Yes | 43c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe97…5e05backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb094…ab6abacked Yes | 35c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x092f…18acbacked No | 41c | 28.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +145.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ff…d597backed Yes | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62c8…dbfebacked No | 57c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…55fabacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3662…d182backed No | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +172.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…227dbacked Yes | 78c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe011…a801backed Yes | 66c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8729…6098backed Yes | 66c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1227…a274backed No | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9290…43ecbacked Yes | 66c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea20…92cbbacked Yes | 66c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 32-33°F on March 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 29°F or below on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 40°F or higher on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 30-31°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 34-35°F on March 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on March 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.