Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x246f81064db9193330a0d2bbc32cce8b7e21abe1cb074d2f0b3aca2bd23ba021
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,008
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,008 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 2c | 4,334$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,261.16 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 6c | 607.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.55 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 8c | 379.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 32c | 326.47$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.84 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 65c | 294.21$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.08 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 20c | 214.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 69c | 204.58$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.54 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 9c | 199.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.41 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 69c | 151.29$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.43 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 40c | 130.57$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 65c | 128.34$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.41 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 44c | 107.77$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.61 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 77c | 106.97$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed No | 19c | 99.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 44c | 93.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 84.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 16c | 79.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3504…1f40backed No | 49c | 62.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 31c | 57.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 46.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d8…52d5backed Yes | 80c | 39.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed Yes | 80c | 36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 61c | 35.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…20e0backed Yes | 68c | 31.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 67c | 30.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8b…8e96backed Yes | 66c | 29.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed Yes | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 54c | 26.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbe…e906backed Yes | 77c | 26.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1907…ac1abacked No | 65c | 24.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 79c | 23.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 23.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes | 78c | 17.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C or below on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.