NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2489194d9b7246c8e3d4063a0e0db61f8d97c45d3fcbcd75e61b009adf39d87d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,837 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Over | 35c | 1,506$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986.26 | 358 | 29.3%105 W · 253 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 65c | 958.54$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.05 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 52c | 572.95$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.7 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63ce…dd2ebacked Under | 69c | 192.16$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.59 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Over | 35c | 179.47$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.47 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 62c | 127.25$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.32 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Under | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Under | 66c | 107.32$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.83 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Under | 38c | 105.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a6…f2e3backed Over | 31c | 97.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.41 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 56c | 97.68$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…6b7fbacked Over | 31c | 94.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 68c | 73.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 34c | 69.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…4145backed Over | 33c | 67.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 31c | 51.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 159 | 44.7%71 W · 88 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 69c | 40.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 54c | 39.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2562…72a9backed Under | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed Under | 66c | 36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -12.1wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -33%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 65c | 35.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Under | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | -24.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 43c | 24.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Under | 60c | 20.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 149 | 63.8%95 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penguins vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5this page
- Penguins vs. AvalanchePenguins won
- Penguins vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.