TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Penguinsof Avalanche, Penguins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,221

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,221 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xacae…6798backed Avalanche46c9,056$4,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,164.133850%19 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Penguins54c6,500$3,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,989.9951045.5%232 W · 278 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Penguins54c4,770$2,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1941,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Penguins54c3,636$1,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,672.551,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Penguins54c3,000$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,38027243.4%118 W · 154 L-16.8wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5976…b3d4backed Avalanche46c2,745$1,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,262.713147.3%62 W · 69 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71f9…16fbbacked Avalanche46c1,966$903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902.722254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed Penguins55c1,956$1,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880.2735829.3%105 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6b1…78fdbacked Avalanche46c1,789$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.945639.3%22 W · 34 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Avalanche46c1,603$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.3836648.6%178 W · 188 L-14.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Avalanche46c1,087$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50029551.9%153 W · 142 L-1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Penguins68c1,079$736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.7938551.4%198 W · 187 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Avalanche46c983$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.8786852.4%455 W · 413 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Penguins53c907.27$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.4250049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73c0…e8d1backed Avalanche46c750.91$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.282138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Avalanche44c749.83$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.9391945.6%419 W · 500 L-27.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Avalanche33c684.74$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.982,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Avalanche46c624.99$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.566552%346 W · 319 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Penguins55c600$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.9415431.8%49 W · 105 L-12.4wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-24.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Penguins67c561.26$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.31,84657.2%1,055 W · 791 L+85.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Penguins54c460.37$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.772,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb590…15d3backed Avalanche47c425.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20048161.3%295 W · 186 L+21.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d54…a756backed Avalanche46c349.97$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.4915054%81 W · 69 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Penguins63c310.63$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.483,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Penguins54c300$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13891653.9%494 W · 422 L+39.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x966d…eaa5backed Penguins56c280$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.212254.1%66 W · 56 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xab41…c453backed Penguins65c277.93$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.651,43158.3%834 W · 597 L+81.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Avalanche32c277.1$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.6182043%353 W · 467 L-1.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Avalanche32c214.37$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.52,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Avalanche47c196.35$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.1957238.1%218 W · 354 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Avalanche33c187.53$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.021,38447.1%652 W · 732 L+25.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Penguins55c185$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.2562447.3%295 W · 329 L+0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdade…8e37backed Penguins55c166.05$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.722857.1%16 W · 12 L+4.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+35.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Avalanche48c156.25$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7533145%149 W · 182 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda75…e183backed Avalanche46c150$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6920%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Avalanche37c148.41$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.722,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Avalanche32c145.98$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0429553.6%158 W · 137 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Avalanche28c128.36$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.291,20260.1%722 W · 480 L+51.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd827…fe79backed Avalanche38c120$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510438.5%40 W · 64 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Avalanche45c111.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5078651.8%407 W · 379 L-16.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc44f…8b04backed Avalanche46c108.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020046%92 W · 108 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f38…39f2backed Avalanche46c108.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5013547.4%64 W · 71 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Avalanche32c103.77$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.961,10752%576 W · 531 L+63.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+7.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Penguins54c103.35$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.5438147.2%180 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed Avalanche45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4524350.2%122 W · 121 L-13.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-9.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x351b…4d06backed Penguins55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+22.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12f2…0a1dbacked Avalanche47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.76616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.31per pick47cpaid-52.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Avalanche45c99.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4526154%141 W · 120 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf60…79c5backed Penguins55c99.22$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.654748.9%23 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdad…9eaebacked Avalanche45c90$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.517940.2%72 W · 107 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd5b…8882backed Avalanche45c88.89$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.24per pick40cpaid+83.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Avalanche30c87.74$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5323450%117 W · 117 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0138…8451backed Avalanche46c84.78$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399744.3%43 W · 54 L-0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Penguins55c77$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6510858.3%63 W · 45 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x45c1…4364backed Penguins56c69.69$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.693141.9%13 W · 18 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Avalanche35c61.16$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4737857.4%217 W · 161 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05e0…e2cbbacked Penguins70c59$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.74443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Avalanche49c59$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.911,05442.5%448 W · 606 L-25.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Penguins69c55$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1715368%104 W · 49 L+11.6wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+8.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8bee…0ca9backed Penguins55c51$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.95366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Penguins55c50.91$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.86758.2%39 W · 28 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dcd…74c6backed Penguins56c45.17$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.873458.8%20 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x287c…81b2backed Penguins68c45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.552867.9%19 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Avalanche27c43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6131828.3%90 W · 228 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3db3…8b52backed Avalanche46c39$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.941136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-33.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0869…1f5ebacked Avalanche46c37.17$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.12352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x03af…4c28backed Avalanche46c36.96$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171560%9 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc53…6bd3backed Penguins55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3654049.4%267 W · 273 L-2.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf05f…91d5backed Penguins55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3618150.8%92 W · 89 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0112…4fe9backed Avalanche47c36.17$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1712547.2%59 W · 66 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49ec…ac1cbacked Avalanche46c34$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.646237.1%23 W · 39 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b7e…1a39backed Penguins56c32.14$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.142951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+32.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9dc…038ebacked Penguins56c32$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.084344.2%19 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x439d…3e06backed Avalanche46c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Penguins54c27.36$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5919651.5%101 W · 95 L-0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5dc7…31e1backed Penguins56c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7bd…4dd0backed Penguins56c23.96$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Penguins54c22.85$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5142948.7%209 W · 220 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde2d…1e4dbacked Penguins56c20.55$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.042100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+57.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Penguins54c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.213336.1%48 W · 85 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6436…aa37backed Penguins62c19.58$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4412335.8%44 W · 79 L-14.9wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-28.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9dee…8be9backed Penguins56c18.23$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.022100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.