TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Penguins vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$670,005

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $670,005 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Over55c492,140$268,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223,202.0620354.2%110 W · 93 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Under45c168,739$75,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75,932.471,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Under45c150,000$67,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67,50040351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under46c123,921$57,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57,040.51,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under46c63,408$29,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,371.5751550.7%261 W · 254 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Over54c57,608$31,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,535.785050%25 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x44fd…b634backed Over53c38,480$20,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,085.381060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Under46c36,084$16,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,599.6436748%176 W · 191 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99e0…5052backed Under46c20,000$9,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,2003339.4%13 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under45c12,500$5,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,6251,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43b6…9a9bbacked Under48c11,757$5,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,633.51855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over52c8,419$4,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,041.1279350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d7a…b22fbacked Under49c7,173$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50016843.5%73 W · 95 L-14.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-16.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over53c6,000$3,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,82089547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed Under48c4,667$2,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,254.524240.5%17 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Under46c4,000$1,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,84039752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Under45c3,333$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.857949.4%39 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Over52c3,333$1,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,599.831,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Under46c3,238$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.9940356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over52c3,237$1,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,553.9459450.8%302 W · 292 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Under46c2,781$1,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,277.95253.8%28 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bd3…394cbacked Under48c2,781$1,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,334.742240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under47c2,500$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,17562346.9%292 W · 331 L-3.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Under46c2,500$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,15027048.1%130 W · 140 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x772e…c442backed Under50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under45c1,563$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.571,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x687d…e28bbacked Under47c1,216$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.43348.5%16 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Under47c1,190$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.2727150.2%136 W · 135 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed Under46c1,174$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5403253.1%17 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f52…c525backed Under46c1,087$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5007745.5%35 W · 42 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Under49c1,017$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50085250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed Under46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4603357.6%19 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over53c990.99$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.7783149.5%411 W · 420 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x973b…a912backed Under46c989.13$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4552356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under47c967.02$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.7291653.9%494 W · 422 L+39.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Under46c700$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32232648.2%157 W · 169 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7412…85d0backed Under48c697.01$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.563342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under46c654.8$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.1791945.6%419 W · 500 L-27.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe393…f016backed Under46c652.17$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005850%29 W · 29 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc339…ba5bbacked Over52c628.85$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.857149.3%35 W · 36 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Under48c619$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.1226551.3%136 W · 129 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4bd…20e9backed Under46c604.05$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.596857.4%39 W · 29 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+19.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Over55c592.11$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.429448.6%143 W · 151 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Over53c532.68$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.5913336.1%48 W · 85 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x66c4…2852backed Under47c531.91$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc991…abd4backed Over55c523.29$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.0412653.2%67 W · 59 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfab0…e0f5backed Under47c518.62$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.753847.4%18 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9510…16dfbacked Over55c507.01$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.433339.4%13 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-18.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over51c500$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24558352.1%304 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Under46c500$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23032451.2%166 W · 158 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x94c4…2a41backed Over55c465$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.992240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-18.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4d9…c125backed Under46c434.78$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006850%34 W · 34 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc1b…3b5bbacked Under46c428.26$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19712058.3%70 W · 50 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f36…81b7backed Under47c419.7$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.2640%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over52c393.81$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.031,09250.4%550 W · 542 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93f1…b99dbacked Over55c358.73$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.433145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under46c347.83$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16028753.3%153 W · 134 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf498…3d66backed Under46c345.65$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15932155.5%178 W · 143 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe975…9d22backed Under46c332.61$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333154.1%179 W · 152 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Over55c301.2$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.4728549.1%140 W · 145 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over53c277.66$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.53,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under46c276.05$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.672,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d57…2b4ebacked Under46c267$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.8217458%101 W · 73 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca43…9d5cbacked Under46c254.55$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.853357.6%19 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe23…e72bbacked Over55c250$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.53040%12 W · 18 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over59c249.16$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.6389355.5%496 W · 397 L+67.6wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Under47c248.34$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.1512335%43 W · 80 L-12.4wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-23.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xda75…bbf9backed Over56c240$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.620655.3%114 W · 92 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66df…7ea5backed Over53c235.85$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.858850%44 W · 44 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x18c6…a4dbbacked Under46c226$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.964542.2%19 W · 26 L-4.5wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-23.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a67…ef6bbacked Over55c220.99$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.4814853.4%79 W · 69 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf10…691bbacked Under46c205.93$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9424749%121 W · 126 L+0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Under9c200.76$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1834752.4%182 W · 165 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Over51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9826154%141 W · 120 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbeef…5667backed Under46c189.13$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8729053.4%155 W · 135 L+1.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under48c182.07$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.5242948.7%209 W · 220 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdae4…f1fcbacked Over55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.822347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc308…c3b9backed Over55c181.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.392751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53cd…f23ebacked Under46c177.16$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.4936852.2%192 W · 176 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcaf5…815bbacked Under46c169.57$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7829052.4%152 W · 138 L+1.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe293…d3edbacked Under47c163.26$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.984242.9%18 W · 24 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-19.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x383d…87eabacked Under46c162.87$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.9248157.2%275 W · 206 L+21.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over51c161.84$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.612,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a4…65c3backed Under46c153.26$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.511450%57 W · 57 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Under49c150.73$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.224346.1%112 W · 131 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9094…dcabbacked Over55c148$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.61747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Over52c141.68$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.6218453.8%99 W · 85 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe63d…0545backed Under46c139.39$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.124447.7%21 W · 23 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-15.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x666f…9860backed Under46c136.5$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.799655.2%53 W · 43 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94bb…6807backed Under47c132$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.042334.8%8 W · 15 L-3.7wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-31.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under46c122$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1284953.8%457 W · 392 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e2a…a58dbacked Under46c119.54$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9911656%65 W · 51 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd47a…4e85backed Over56c117.35$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.081145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9683…108bbacked Under46c108.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506061.7%37 W · 23 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Over53c106$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.8233745.7%154 W · 183 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e70…14babacked Under45c105.1$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.310049%49 W · 51 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56a7…9f37backed Under48c104.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506642.4%28 W · 38 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under48c104.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9978651.8%407 W · 379 L-16.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under18c102.21$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0474054.5%403 W · 337 L+22.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Over53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4742750.8%217 W · 210 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.