Tennis · resolved market
Nottingham 2: Roman Safiullin vs August Holmgren
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2498edd40379384d40f5528a3167fa8df7cfee6121ab5e07b80454e0276a3089
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Roman Safiullinof Roman Safiullin, August Holmgren
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacf8…e791backed August Holmgren | 33c | 5,869$1,934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,934.21 | 337 | 37.1%125 W · 212 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Roman Safiullin | 70c | 2,323$1,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.08 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Roman Safiullin | 66c | 2,163$1,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.49 | 3,726 | 42.4%1,580 W · 2,146 L | -48.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Roman Safiullin | 67c | 1,609$1,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.84 | 9,038 | 36.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L | -196.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Roman Safiullin | 72c | 939.1$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.21 | 3,155 | 57.2%1,806 W · 1,349 L | +176.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked August Holmgren | 33c | 887.6$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.83 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…f4debacked August Holmgren | 36c | 829.9$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.52 | 1,475 | 35.2%519 W · 956 L | -14.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed August Holmgren | 30c | 542.42$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.3 | 5,325 | 28.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L | -21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed August Holmgren | 8c | 523.55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 2,887 | 39.5%1,141 W · 1,746 L | -84.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Roman Safiullin | 68c | 477.85$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.91 | 4,341 | 52.3%2,271 W · 2,070 L | +63.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked August Holmgren | 12c | 332.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 4,253 | 45%1,912 W · 2,341 L | +20.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a34…51fabacked August Holmgren | 16c | 300.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 220 | 20%44 W · 176 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Roman Safiullin | 70c | 273.72$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.96 | 1,062 | 42%446 W · 616 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44a…88ecbacked Roman Safiullin | 71c | 263.16$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.83 | 525 | 57%299 W · 226 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Roman Safiullin | 70c | 252.38$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.73 | 2,326 | 52.1%1,213 W · 1,113 L | +85.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…706abacked August Holmgren | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,824 | 46.5%849 W · 975 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Roman Safiullin | 65c | 152.67$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.43 | 1,107 | 52.8%585 W · 522 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ade…ed94backed Roman Safiullin | 66c | 149.25$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 1,458 | 54%787 W · 671 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked August Holmgren | 35c | 146$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 3,319 | 48.4%1,605 W · 1,714 L | -52.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed August Holmgren | 36c | 138.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 372 | 38.2%142 W · 230 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed August Holmgren | 34c | 110$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Roman Safiullin | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Roman Safiullin | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed August Holmgren | 34c | 86.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 2,521 | 38.4%969 W · 1,552 L | +93.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Roman Safiullin | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 2,839 | 47.2%1,340 W · 1,499 L | +38.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked August Holmgren | 32c | 78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 627 | 27.3%171 W · 456 L | -15.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked August Holmgren | 25c | 65.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 1,228 | 23.1%284 W · 944 L | -164.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -47%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e2…64a6backed August Holmgren | 32c | 59.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Roman Safiullin | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 1,229 | 53.1%653 W · 576 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf390…bdbabacked Roman Safiullin | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.17per pick | 65cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Roman Safiullin | 69c | 23.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Roman Safiullin | 64c | 17.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 3,987 | 45.5%1,816 W · 2,171 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…f12fbacked Roman Safiullin | 65c | 16.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 595 | 65.4%389 W · 206 L | +17.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Roman Safiullin | 72c | 16.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 857 | 42.8%367 W · 490 L | -23.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Roman Safiullin | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 1,276 | 61%778 W · 498 L | +27.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.