Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: RNX (-1.5) vs Grind Back (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24a1423336ca08736d280309aabb61db4a375381ab27afdcda49dd5c9e61ee65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- REKONIXof REKONIX, Grind Back
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed Grind Back | 59c | 3,431$2,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,024.58 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed REKONIX | 41c | 1,951$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151.22 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Grind Back | 58c | 1,529$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.24 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed REKONIX | 70c | 1,130$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.34 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed REKONIX | 42c | 999.99$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.5 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Grind Back | 52c | 559.69$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.77 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked REKONIX | 41c | 536.59$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.59 | 131 | 48.1%63 W · 68 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked REKONIX | 41c | 500$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 171 | 33.9%58 W · 113 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…4b1dbacked REKONIX | 39c | 468.57$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.83 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Grind Back | 59c | 400$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.54 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Grind Back | 32c | 396.84$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.96 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed REKONIX | 54c | 386.92$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.93 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad9…0eaebacked REKONIX | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked REKONIX | 43c | 297.11$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.35 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Grind Back | 60c | 262.65$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb87…eb45backed Grind Back | 31c | 259.8$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.54 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x591d…f4dfbacked REKONIX | 44c | 250$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe694…0a08backed REKONIX | 46c | 199.55$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.92 | 181 | 52.5%95 W · 86 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa371…eaa5backed REKONIX | 44c | 186.36$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.36 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…5491backed REKONIX | 41c | 179.57$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.87 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…a307backed Grind Back | 58c | 169.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.39 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Grind Back | 13c | 160$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7b…8fb6backed Grind Back | 57c | 116.14$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed Grind Back | 55c | 112$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…57bbbacked REKONIX | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 418 | 64.1%268 W · 150 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed REKONIX | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked REKONIX | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 546 | 59.7%326 W · 220 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2338…27f6backed REKONIX | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd82…6a10backed Grind Back | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 47cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Grind Back | 55c | 89.09$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Grind Back | 59c | 65.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6216…1bd4backed REKONIX | 41c | 52.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Grind Back | 53c | 46.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d5…4bd3backed REKONIX | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 25 | 96%24 W · 1 L | +5.6wins | +0.23per pick | 73cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Grind Back | 48c | 36.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfce8…2686backed Grind Back | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 66.2%96 W · 49 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Grind Back | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7029…1136backed Grind Back | 55c | 24.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Grind Back | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: RNX (-1.5) vs Grind Back (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier PlayoffsREKONIX won
- Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 WinnerREKONIX won
- Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 WinnerREKONIX won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.