Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24c7fe9bc8be88c4ba5789760454dbd106f397839482368aedd1e21a1bf7e89d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes | 41c | 370.31$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.31 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 63c | 318.63$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.2 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 31c | 295.39$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.85 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 67c | 279.79$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.74 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 61c | 275.05$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.05 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 241.97$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.28 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 212$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.79 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 20c | 196.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed Yes | 73c | 161.99$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.13 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 161.81$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 65c | 140.95$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.19 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked No | 74c | 140.61$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.58 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 128.62$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.34 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 19c | 105.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 63c | 103.7$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 65c | 99.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.22 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 33c | 96.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.97 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 51c | 92.23$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 37c | 91.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.74 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 67c | 90.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 27c | 90.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.54 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 40c | 87.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.67 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 36c | 85.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.78 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 34c | 85.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.81 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…4629backed Yes | 35c | 84.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.81 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbad…8426backed Yes | 32c | 78.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 16c | 75.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 70.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 70.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 77c | 69.91$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 59c | 69.12$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 32c | 65.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.78 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 50c | 64.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 29c | 59.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x381d…07edbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 46c | 55.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 57c | 55.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 21c | 54.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 67c | 50.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked Yes | 52c | 50.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 64c | 49.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f74…7fecbacked Yes | 35c | 48.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +81%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 64c | 48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 35c | 47.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 77c | 47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 36c | 45.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 65c | 44.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed No | 37c | 44.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb7…841cbacked No | 65c | 44.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 73c | 44.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 65c | 43.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 35c | 43.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 41c | 42.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 36c | 41.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadd6…2a5fbacked No | 68c | 40.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 32c | 37.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 67c | 35.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 36c | 34.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed Yes | 34c | 34.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 32c | 34.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 78c | 32.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 65c | 31.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 61c | 30.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…7e34backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 67c | 29.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbac5…2ef1backed No | 63c | 29.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 55c | 28.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed No | 66c | 27.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 116 | 70.7%82 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf95b…1032backed No | 73c | 27.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked Yes | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 63c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 40c | 25.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 54c | 23.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 66c | 23.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 63c | 23.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…3661backed Yes | 73c | 23.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb232…771dbacked Yes | 68c | 22.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 69c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 65c | 21.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 50c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9282…cf25backed No | 66c | 20.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 66c | 19.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 67c | 18.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 71c | 15.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…b49ebacked No | 68c | 15.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 77 | 71.4%55 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 68c | 14.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C or higher on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.