Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x013e992013a319a559e6502f1ac9b573122165cebe2a9b5ffd78b233d31fed0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,875
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,875 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3fb0…611abacked Yes | 0c | 10,650$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed No | 76c | 2,073$1,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.35 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,115$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Yes | 69c | 1,067$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.37 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 22c | 515.85$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.1 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 24c | 330.63$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 49c | 297.14$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 68c | 295.2$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.84 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 287.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 51c | 234.4$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.84 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 13c | 195.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 14c | 183.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 62c | 160.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Yes | 43c | 144.04$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 138.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 137.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 45c | 133$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.63 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 114.32$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.94 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 12c | 110.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 103.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 14c | 84.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 70c | 83.96$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 26c | 82.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 49c | 76.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd56e…9457backed Yes | 14c | 74.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d63…5dd1backed No | 76c | 62.19$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 50c | 60.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…daebbacked No | 21c | 53.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 23c | 51.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 36c | 46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 39c | 45.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 56c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 70c | 33.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8a…3430backed Yes | 77c | 31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 65c | 30.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 61c | 30.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 48c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…6922backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476d…ceecbacked Yes | 57c | 19.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 186 | 15.6%29 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 53c | 19.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 69c | 16.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 73c | 16.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 75c | 14.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc510…5c9fbacked Yes | 79c | 14.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…a28dbacked Yes | 78c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on May 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C or higher on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.