Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24e1a539f48542dab2f374011dccd2f7fe3638c3847f894cccf67d896b565582
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 48c | 479.52$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.65 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…f22cbacked Yes | 51c | 392.73$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 48c | 208.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 54c | 183.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.69 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 179.49$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.93 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 37c | 177.01$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.73 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 7c | 168.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 102 | 19.6%20 W · 82 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 53c | 157.82$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.71 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 71c | 152.82$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.85 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 78c | 127.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 43c | 124.84$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.87 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 47c | 117.06$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.05 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 34c | 114.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 101.87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 50c | 100.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 43c | 92.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 54c | 90$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 29c | 89.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 51c | 84.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…87d5backed No | 50c | 80.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.36 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 51c | 79.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 50c | 76.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 51c | 72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 46c | 68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 44c | 68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…19d9backed Yes | 70c | 56.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 44c | 52.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…427cbacked No | 54c | 52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…6ed2backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 49c | 41.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 41.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 36.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 47c | 33.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 50c | 33.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 49c | 32.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 50c | 32.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 55c | 29.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd01…e719backed Yes | 52c | 28.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 25.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…2ec5backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb81…6894backed Yes | 60c | 24.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 52c | 24.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 53c | 23.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f4…bb68backed Yes | 68c | 21.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 52c | 21.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc508…70acbacked No | 77c | 19.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 63c | 16.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on July 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.