Tennis · resolved market
Wuhan Tennis Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Karolina Muchova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24ec6504bee0b70838418f44a0ac5d981bca980d0d08cd9468909f869b0efefe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Muchovaof Kostyuk, Muchova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Muchova | 39c | 6,033$2,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,690.4 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Kostyuk | 53c | 4,752$2,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,530.82 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kostyuk | 57c | 3,264$1,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,865.55 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Muchova | 54c | 1,418$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.55 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Kostyuk | 2c | 948.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Kostyuk | 52c | 899.99$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Muchova | 48c | 833.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.33 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Muchova | 56c | 800$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb7…082dbacked Kostyuk | 30c | 499.82$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.95 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…86cebacked Muchova | 76c | 451$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.77 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Muchova | 48c | 409.79$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.09 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb54f…70c3backed Kostyuk | 60c | 346.62$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.78 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Muchova | 56c | 219.62$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.11 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Muchova | 48c | 165.51$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.07 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Kostyuk | 56c | 160.21$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.03 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x062e…9747backed Muchova | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Muchova | 49c | 102.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Kostyuk | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 178 | 67.4%120 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Muchova | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Kostyuk | 54c | 79.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 267 | 46.1%123 W · 144 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Muchova | 44c | 79.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.23 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7665…f332backed Kostyuk | 44c | 68.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Muchova | 63c | 59.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Kostyuk | 52c | 57.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Kostyuk | 64c | 46.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Muchova | 56c | 46.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edc…2d23backed Kostyuk | 51c | 42.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Muchova | 51c | 38.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec2…e905backed Kostyuk | 49c | 32.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…00b4backed Kostyuk | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b36…9f34backed Kostyuk | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Muchova | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.