Champions League · resolved market
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x250ace781112936d8ef3e9178bc99b48a1d41eba40fa1790ed12b7369a1f67fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,044
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,044 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 15c | 9,656$1,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,432.92 | 1,487 | 40.3%599 W · 888 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 17c | 8,838$1,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,491.56 | 1,959 | 44.1%863 W · 1,096 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 16c | 6,538$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.84 | 594 | 41.8%248 W · 346 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 17c | 3,747$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.65 | 260 | 47.7%124 W · 136 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Under | 16c | 836.15$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.78 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…de5dbacked Under | 18c | 555.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Under | 16c | 348$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x837b…cdebbacked Under | 17c | 294.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Under | 19c | 245$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 16c | 220.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 154 | 38.3%59 W · 95 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 19c | 210.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 150 | 38.7%58 W · 92 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 17c | 200.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked Under | 18c | 191.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…08bbbacked Under | 16c | 147.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4469backed Under | 17c | 121.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x422d…98b7backed Under | 18c | 111.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f14…c845backed Under | 19c | 105.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4147…902abacked Under | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Under | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…9af5backed Under | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7691…7af7backed Under | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 17c | 79.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 236 | 37.3%88 W · 148 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 17c | 69.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 206 | 43.2%89 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 18c | 57.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.