Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x251c56259f7f5a9c7bdf2bd3c6248c4bb90fbf7ab06ced172ecc4f5d1933894c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 38c | 720.93$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.98 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 42c | 378.65$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.98 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 47c | 248.21$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.41 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 18c | 240.84$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 60c | 230.1$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.92 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 73c | 190.06$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.64 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 46c | 189.85$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.59 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 38c | 187.21$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.94 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 153.87$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 49c | 137.84$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 62c | 124$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.4 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 48c | 114.92$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.76 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 49c | 111.07$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 58c | 110.71$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.64 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 56c | 107.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.93 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked No | 47c | 101.36$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 42c | 100.37$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 41c | 94.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.11 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 60c | 90$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 44c | 89.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 60c | 89.68$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 47c | 85.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 27c | 84.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.25 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 52c | 78.87$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 39c | 76.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 61c | 76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 61c | 75.41$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 39c | 72.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.83 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 45c | 60.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 49c | 57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 38c | 56.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23a1…cbf6backed Yes | 23c | 55.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 43c | 55.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 44c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed Yes | 77c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 63c | 49.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 51c | 45.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 56c | 44.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 42.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 37c | 41.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked Yes | 59c | 39.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x388b…5712backed Yes | 52c | 38.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 39c | 38.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 47c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 49c | 37.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 52c | 35.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 44c | 35.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 50c | 34.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 46c | 31.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 60c | 30.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…6004backed Yes | 77c | 30.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 43c | 29.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 62c | 27.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 62c | 27.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 62c | 27.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 62c | 27.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 63c | 27.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 54c | 26.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 46c | 25.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfebb…09efbacked Yes | 45c | 24.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e3…8327backed No | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 62c | 23.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 50c | 23.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…a96dbacked Yes | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 51c | 20.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c25…963dbacked Yes | 50c | 20.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 62c | 18.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on August 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.