Bundesliga · resolved market
TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2537e9c92c1a7f706166a69051a5ff2e5b72ae45a9220519faa4a0d5a45eac31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,011
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,011 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 22c | 8,252$1,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,795.7 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5f…4b52backed Under | 78c | 7,000$5,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 79c | 2,822$2,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.62 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Over | 31c | 1,575$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.4 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Under | 70c | 767.82$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.73 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 68c | 444$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.08 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 15c | 414.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.45 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 24c | 414.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Over | 30c | 294.21$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.26 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…f012backed Under | 70c | 282.14$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 13c | 212.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Under | 69c | 129$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 14c | 119.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Over | 23c | 86.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed Under | 69c | 79$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Under | 69c | 62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Under | 69c | 46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Under | 69c | 46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Under | 70c | 45.68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Under | 69c | 44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…921dbacked Under | 69c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Under | 69c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -46%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Under | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Under | 69c | 16.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 3.5this page
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 1.5Under won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 2.5Under won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.