Bundesliga · resolved market
TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a75758624ae95043d07f6d7924749a7956762938b1e3d9fbe2045cefabec7c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Under | 23c | 3,999$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,079.57 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dd…171dbacked Over | 78c | 1,930$1,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,505.4 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 77cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 77c | 1,159$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.98 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 24c | 1,017$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.05 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…deb0backed Over | 43c | 999$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.57 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 867.24$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.63 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 79c | 759.49$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Under | 23c | 452$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.04 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 22c | 385.28$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.64 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Over | 51c | 382.94$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 79c | 379.95$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Over | 76c | 222$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.43 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…e7eebacked Over | 79c | 210.43$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.45 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 12c | 158$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 25c | 144.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.19 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Under | 21c | 131.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.83 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Over | 77c | 120$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…27fbbacked Over | 77c | 116.95$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.05 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Over | 77c | 102$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.54 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked Over | 78c | 92.01$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.77 | 47 | 85.1%40 W · 7 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Over | 77c | 90$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Over | 77c | 84$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…dce6backed Over | 77c | 83$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 38c | 76.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad5c…664abacked Over | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 20c | 61.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Over | 77c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…a1b6backed Over | 36c | 54.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +202.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f43…843abacked Over | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 78c | 41.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x223e…fc48backed Under | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…9725backed Over | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Over | 77c | 34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 46c | 33.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 78c | 25.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 68.1%64 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…2bd8backed Over | 71c | 23.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…0d65backed Over | 57c | 21.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccbf…b43cbacked Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbdc…cdadbacked Over | 68c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 77c | 17.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 77c | 16.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f0…327cbacked Over | 77c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Over | 76c | 15.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bed…6b26backed Over | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71e1…ff1fbacked Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 1.5this page
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 2.5Under won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 3.5Under won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.