Bundesliga · resolved market
TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x469a5470c0033667a8e809eea8bcb82753b4b69e647f8dd1c6165e0a1ed4cd5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 1,601$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.92 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 55c | 1,100$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f2…d776backed Over | 34c | 878$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.72 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 71c | 703.48$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 60c | 684.04$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.75 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40a5…f0a8backed Under | 45c | 543.48$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 46c | 443.97$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.75 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 22c | 420.84$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.39 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 48c | 320.71$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.77 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…298cbacked Over | 54c | 235.19$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 45c | 223.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 45c | 211.98$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.59 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 52c | 160.66$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.55 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 53c | 153.72$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.82 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Over | 53c | 141$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.73 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb0…b622backed Over | 40c | 128.83$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…9a83backed Over | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Over | 53c | 118$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.54 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb4…d481backed Over | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcb…1879backed Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Over | 53c | 90$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Over | 53c | 90$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 41c | 85.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Over | 53c | 83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Over | 53c | 82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Over | 53c | 79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Over | 53c | 76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42bf…30f7backed Over | 54c | 75.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Over | 50c | 72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…630fbacked Over | 53c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Over | 53c | 69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Over | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…1716backed Under | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Over | 53c | 59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Over | 53c | 51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +45%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e60…18dcbacked Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Under | 47c | 47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…bb17backed Under | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Under | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Over | 53c | 39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad2…d17fbacked Under | 47c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +206.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…9bdbbacked Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd411…e342backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…d7b0backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…4523backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe9…a400backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab2e…8b4bbacked Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…d57ebacked Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Under | 45c | 29.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…bdfcbacked Under | 47c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…8c58backed Under | 47c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…9f5abacked Under | 47c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89fe…4293backed Under | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…e9f2backed Under | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7399…fe96backed Under | 47c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +73%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…e161backed Under | 47c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…b6a4backed Under | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 2.5this page
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 1.5Under won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 3.5Under won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.